ITM Strategy with Dominant Stack

[Kevin8423]

I've been making plays like this for some time, the situation doesn't occur extremely frequently, and it could be completely wrong, however I think it is something to think about and many people probably wouldn't do this.

You get to a situation ITM where you are a dominant stack, especially like in this example where the other two stacks are uneven with a short stack that has to call ATC and can be expected to even if they are horrible and have no idea what is going on.

If you fold in this spot, with any hand that is -EV according to ICM, the big blind will shove with a pretty wide range. When he frequently wins you will now be HU against a decent sized stack.

Soo..

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t600 (3 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero (t8860)
SB (t3636)
BB (t1004)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t8810</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls t354 (All-In).

You shove instead. This hand here is close, seems to be slightly -EV no matter what SBs calling range is, but what if we shoved much wider or even ATC? According to ICM it is incorrect, but consider the outcomes of shoving:

1) We win, we now have the additional chips of this pot instead of the SB, and HU the extra 1500 added to our stack instead is a 3k difference and is significant (10264,3236 vs 8810,4690).

2) We lose, the stacks become 7856,3236,2408. We still have a significant chip lead, and can easily continue to dominate ITM.

I think taking the -EV spot here to prevent SB from gaining chips and entering HU is well worth it, you are still in great shape when you lose, and when you win you get a significant addition to your stack from the BB especially when compared to SB getting the chips instead. Most definitley in games where the other two players are folding frequently you don't lose much at all even when you lose this hand, so I think shoving is the correct play, wider than with 97o and probably with ATC.

Feel free to add to, berate or dismiss this [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[justatrey]

Interesting theory, but you didn't include all the outcomes of shoving. Basically, you left out the times SB calls.

If he calls with say Top 10%, and we're on ATC then we're losing the chip lead maybe 6 or 7% of the times we shove here (not sure exactly how well ATC does against top 10%). This is what stops me from doing this but maybe thats playing too scared because it overlooks the times we get called by SB and suck out?

[Kevin8423]

I did consider it, and it is something to think about, however he should be calling fairly tight here since the BB can fold if we both get all in so I don't think that is enough to make this a bad play.

Edit: If I am looking at SNGWiz right I believe we are 31/69 to win against a SB call on top 10% (with 97o from example) and its 24.5/75.5 if we do this even with 23o.

[PokahPokah]

yeah the sb is calling uber tight to reach 2nd as he knows the bb isnt folding atc. therefore the play is good (the bulk of the time), plus even if the bb doubles through us. we can then carry on pwning the 3-2nd "bubble" so to speak. interesting theory kev

[Collin Moshman]

Hi Kevin8423,

Excellent post. Manipulating your opponents' stack sizes when the blinds are high and you are chip leader is indeed crucial, so I really like this line of thinking.

Also, assuming the SB folds and BB calls -- as will happen the considerable majority of the time, then you are risking around t1000 to win nearly t1500 (with the dead small blind and antes included). So this scenario has you getting nearly 3:2 pot odds as only a slight underdog to two random cards
(Pokerstove has 7 9o winning 46%). And when the BB wins, as you point out, the stack sizes leave you in prime stealing territory with huge blinds right before HU, exactly the position you want to be in.

justarey makes a good point though if you have a hyper-aggressive image and are playing against perceptive and/or not particularly risk-averse players. E.g., if you have been stealing the SB's blind relentlessly and he's both angry and convinced you'll push any two, then he might widen his range.

Against most opponents, however, I think this play is solid.

Best Regards,
Collin

[justatrey]

You're right about SBs tight range, I overlooked this. I'm convinced SBs range is really what it comes down to, because as you showed we're not too worried about losing to BB. Losing to SB is the only really bad scenario, so with any read SB is a semi decent/thinking player, I think its a good play. Definitely not a play I'd usually make; thanks for the post.

[Pudge714]

A big problem with shoving here is you need to go to showdown so when you get HU people know you will shove 97.

[ChipLeader]

I like the play, but we have to consider one other possibility. If we fold, SB is putting BB in with ATC i assume. The times he wins, we still have a 2:1 chip lead HU. The times he loses, however, we now have two stacks that are short and about equal. I generally find it much easier to stomp on two equally short stacks since neither wants to be the first to go. If BB should double through SB, i can now fire at will towards both, slowly crippling so my chances of 1st sky rocket and even if i get a call, im losing only 2000 or 2600, and often sucking out when i dont have a legit hand already.

If youre at high enough stakes where the players will always make the +EV pushes/calls and arent as worried about letting the other player lose first, I like your line better.

[AMT]

against tight/unobservant players it seems fine, but as pudge and Colin have touched on, the fact that a lot of players may open up their ranges to your disliking/disadvantage sometimes makes this play not worth making. good post.

[octaveshift]

You have the big stack. Jamming it in everyone's face is not only your right, but your god damned responsibility.

If the table has proven itself nitalicious, I jam almost any 2 in this spot all day, and twice on Sunday.