I'm winning or getting luck?

Maxinho · #1 07-05-2007, 01:07 PM

Hi, this is my chart with my hands, I read the books of sklansky and ed miller's small stakes, but on the other forum they say my data base was too short to know if I'm running hot or I'm a winner, anyone can say when I can make sure I'm playing right?

Tnx, and sorry if this question is a little bit of a sucker =(

Teddie · #2 07-05-2007, 01:30 PM

What limit? You seems to be able to make a good rate over a decent size if its a micro limits.

But your jump from 100BB's to 196BB's in 200 hands could just be luck, and you could well end with a graph that goes down that sharp.

Enjoy it while its lasts though.

karlwig · #3 07-05-2007, 01:37 PM

hmm. well, actually it depends on your playing style. if you're playing tight, 3460 hands is probably enough to be pretty confident it's not just luck IMO.
if you're playing loose it's important to take the bigger variance into consideration, and you'll usually need a bigger sample size.

at least there's no need to stop playing.

so just keep up the good work. if the graph continiues in that same sweet direction when you reach 20.000 hands, I'd say you should be confident you're a winning player.

KurtSF · #4 07-05-2007, 01:43 PM

(1) 3500 hands is mostly noise. If you are a winning player you could easily be down 200BBs instead.

(2) 6 bb/100 (or 5 or whatever your rate is) is not sustainable. If you are a winning player you will not continue to win at this rate.

(3) That you ARE, in fact, winning, even over a small sample, even if not significant enough to declare you a "winning player", certainly suggests you know what you are doing. Keep it up!

In summary, you're definitely getting lucky. You may or may not be winning. Lookin' good though, so keep learning/playing/posting and you'll know soon enough.

riverruss · #5 07-05-2007, 01:48 PM

3460 hands is 8/9hrs play 4 tabling 6max.
Do you think you can determine if your a winning player after 1 days play?
Dont make any judgement until you have played 50K+ hands.
On the bright side 6bb/100 is easily sustainable at micro limits.

KurtSF · #6 07-05-2007, 02:04 PM

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On the bright side 6bb/100 is easily sustainable at micro limits.

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Still? I did it at .25/.50 and below, but that was pre-UIEGA and I was under the impression that the games were harder now. But I haven't played microlimit LHE in over a year, so I can't say anything with authority.

Teddie · #7 07-05-2007, 02:16 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

On the bright side 6bb/100 is easily sustainable at micro limits.

[/ QUOTE ]

Still? I did it at .25/.50 and below, but that was pre-UIEGA and I was under the impression that the games were harder now. But I haven't played microlimit LHE in over a year, so I can't say anything with authority.

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depends on micro i suppse, but i'd say 6 at NL could be done easily enough.

infinity235 · #8 07-05-2007, 02:42 PM

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anyone can say when I can make sure I'm playing right?

[/ QUOTE ]

Ed Miller wrote an article for guys like you and us all.

http://www.notedpokerauthority.com/a...m-awesome.html

KurtSF · #9 07-05-2007, 02:43 PM

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depends on micro i suppse, but i'd say 6 at NL could be done easily enough.

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OP is playing limit holdem, not no-limit holdem.

Or so I thought, given the "small stakes" reference.

KurtSF · #10 07-05-2007, 02:49 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Ed Miller wrote an article for guys like you and us all.

http://www.notedpokerauthority.com/a...m-awesome.html

[/ QUOTE ]

Great article! I'm going to post the final paragraph here because of its awesomeness.

[ QUOTE ]
Your results are irrelevant. If you simply can’t get your brain there, then move down in stakes until you can. Your results are irrelevant. All that matters is if you are better today than you were yesterday. Only then will you be awesome.

[/ QUOTE ]