Sets are good, right?

DTD · #1 07-04-2007, 04:23 PM

Am I going crazy and seeing monsters for not wanting to call here? I've been so card-dead today I honestly can't see the monitor straight anymore...

Villan is 30/12 over 1.5k hands but despite having odd stats is well up and actually seems to play v straightforward in big pots. I've never noticed anything else in those 1.5k hands anyway.

Party Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $3/$6 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

Hero (SB): $1,673.60
BB: $1,220.30
UTG: $293.00
CO: $501.44
BTN: $1,236.96

Preflop: Hero is dealt 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 Players)
2 folds, BTN raises to $24.00, Hero calls $21.00, BB calls $18.00

Flop: ($72) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 Players)
Hero bets $65.00, BB folds, BTN calls $65.00

Turn: ($202) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero bets $125.00, BTN calls $125.00

River: ($452) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero bets $250.00, BTN raises all-in to $1,022.96, Hero?

Jay Riall · #2 07-04-2007, 04:27 PM

Call. Backdoor clubs are unlikely given how the board came out and he is very unlikely to have a set. I think he has Aces up a lot here.

Teh1337zor · #3 07-04-2007, 04:27 PM

bet more on turn, call and hopefully beat his aces up

Teh1337zor · #4 07-04-2007, 04:28 PM

wheeeee we have the same read

Jay Riall · #5 07-04-2007, 04:29 PM

Normally I'd be pretty scared about backdoor clubs tbh, but the A and 7 of clubs coming out mean the combos of clubs he can have are like, tiny.

DTD · #6 07-04-2007, 04:30 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Call. Backdoor clubs are unlikely given how the board came out and he is very unlikely to have a set. I think he has Aces up a lot here.

[/ QUOTE ]

The problem is he doesn't seem the type to push that hand, and he will probably not view me the type to bet/fold a marginal hand like that. Aces up is the hope though.

I wasn't worried about the flush, but he could have had a stright with the two suited flop. AA seemed quite likely.

David1234 · #7 07-04-2007, 04:32 PM

"if he has you beat, more power to him"

Teh1337zor · #8 07-04-2007, 04:33 PM

AA raises the flop a large percentage of the time

DTD · #9 07-04-2007, 04:37 PM

[ QUOTE ]
AA raises the flop a large percentage of the time

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think he would though, 200bb deep, but I can't be sure.

ipokeder · #10 07-04-2007, 04:41 PM

yeah raising this flop with AA is bad, but that doesn't mean a 30/12 won't do it anyway