good time for a combo bet v. a TAG? or do those bets not exist....

dlpnyc21 · #1 04-27-2007, 02:20 AM

I have been doing a lot of thinking (insert laugh track here) lately about a type of bet that people have been noticing going on in the higher stakes games. I've talked to various people about it, and some, like Krantz, or Traheho, think the bet exists, while others, like whitelime, thinks it's hogwash. I've heard the type of bet I'm referring to on these boards as a "two-way bet," a "combo" bet, or, in my own terminology, a "value-bluff." I feel like someone needs to standardize a term for it.

Essentially what it is is a bet that functions in two ways. Sometimes, a worse hand will call (hence a value bet), and other times, a better hand will fold (bluff). Meaning this bet has two functions, hence, combo, two-way, or value bluff. I see durr do these kind of bets most often (i'd be curious if he sees himself as doing these kind of bets, or he views them as value bets or bluffs strictly).

In any case, this is the type of hand I am talking about. Villian in the hand is a winning TAG, 19/15. I make a loose call of the rr pre, out of position. Flop is a decent one for my hand, so I check call (no point in raising). Turn trips up. Chk chk (sometimes I lead here, sometimes not). River double pairs the board. My hand certainly has showdown value here. However, given my image is probably that of a TAGish player who will call reraises with pockets (he's seen this a few times at the tables), if I bet here, I can rep a counterfeited hand like 33-66 and sometimes get looked up by ace high, or, if I bet, I can get a hand like 99, JJ to fold.

What do people think of a river bet here? Is there any merit to it? Villian knows I'm very rarely reverse floating this dry flop, so he has to put me on something, at the very least a pocket pair, or maybe a house or even sometimes an overpair.

I'd also like any commentary on this kind of bet, and what people think of it. Other people have sworn to me that a combo bet doesn't exist and is a horrible way to think about poker, but I tend to disagree.

Thank you,
dlpnyc21

Full Tilt Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $20 BB (6 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

CO ($1937.85)
Button ($2235)
SB ($3623.50)
BB ($400)
UTG ($1991.50)
Hero ($2007)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
1 fold, Hero raises to $70, CO calls $70, Button raises to $310, 2 folds, Hero calls $240, CO folds.

Flop: ($720) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $500, Hero calls $500.

Turn: ($1720) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks.

River: ($1720) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero??

TheWorstPlayer · #2 04-27-2007, 02:26 AM

Dave,

I think two-way bets really cannot possibly exist. I mean, think about it. That's basically saying that he's going to behave irrationally. Because it means that he'll call some weaker hands in his range and fold some stronger hands in his range. He only has one hand range here. Maybe you know what it is and maybe you don't, but in truth he has some specific hand range here. And if you assume that he always sets some threshold within that range and calls with hands stronger than that threshold and folds hands weaker (which is rational, it's not rational to fold stronger hands than some hands you call with, right?) then it is impossible to have a two-way bet. Either there is a +EV segment of his hand range that he'll call and that you beat, or there isn't. If there is, it's a value bet, if there isn't, it's a bluff.

It only SEEMS like it's a two-way bet, because it's a thin value bet or a thin bluff and so sometimes it goes either way. But this is just randomness and if it works out the way you wanted it to, that's because you got LUCKY. It is completely impossible for two-way bets to exist if your opponent plays rationally. It only seems that way because you have no idea what you're doing because you dont' know his hand range and you dont know how he acts with each segment of it. So you throw a bet out there, hoping to get lucky, and when you do you call it a two-way bet.

- TWP

jungy121 · #3 04-27-2007, 02:31 AM

this is just a thin value bet

KRANTZ · #4 04-27-2007, 02:33 AM

[ QUOTE ]
this is just a thin value bet

[/ QUOTE ]

no, it's what TWP said. against some players, it's a thin bluff.

a value bluff or combo bet or whatever is just a blanket term to really describe a situation, imo. it can't really logically make sense.

but it sounds [censored] cool

dlpnyc21 · #5 04-27-2007, 03:19 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Dave,

I think two-way bets really cannot possibly exist. I mean, think about it. That's basically saying that he's going to behave irrationally. Because it means that he'll call some weaker hands in his range and fold some stronger hands in his range. He only has one hand range here. Maybe you know what it is and maybe you don't, but in truth he has some specific hand range here. And if you assume that he always sets some threshold within that range and calls with hands stronger than that threshold and folds hands weaker (which is rational, it's not rational to fold stronger hands than some hands you call with, right?) then it is impossible to have a two-way bet. Either there is a +EV segment of his hand range that he'll call and that you beat, or there isn't. If there is, it's a value bet, if there isn't, it's a bluff.

It only SEEMS like it's a two-way bet, because it's a thin value bet or a thin bluff and so sometimes it goes either way. But this is just randomness and if it works out the way you wanted it to, that's because you got LUCKY. It is completely impossible for two-way bets to exist if your opponent plays rationally. It only seems that way because you have no idea what you're doing because you dont' know his hand range and you dont know how he acts with each segment of it. So you throw a bet out there, hoping to get lucky, and when you do you call it a two-way bet.

- TWP

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, but let's say for instance that I bet this river. I have a decent approximation of his range, but I really don't know for sure. However, what I DO know, is that in this situaiton (or other similar situations), he will sometimes call with worse hands (Ax), and sometimes fold better hands (99, JJ-AA).

I can only guess at his hand range, however, I am sure that this bet will function in two-ways always in this situation.

How then, can this not be a two-way bet in this situation?

I don't know for sure ever if I am value-betting or bluffing in this scenario. See what I'm saying?

Also, what do you think of betting in this specific instance? (i also wanted to get advice on this specific hand).

Thanks, sorry if I"m not making sense, it's late.
dlpnyc21

mastr · #6 04-27-2007, 03:21 AM

wait aren't thehre times where you say flip a coin to decide to call with a range X of hands? As in to bluff-catch X % of the time yoou need to call with this range and 100-X% you need to fold it. If your hand is in the middle of that range, doesn't that mean that some % they'll be calling worse and some % they'll be folding better?
Personally I've never believed in the 2-way bet, but theoroetically it seems possible considering people do play with that thought process at times

Jason Strasser (strassa2) · #7 04-27-2007, 03:36 AM

[ QUOTE ]
wait aren't thehre times where you say flip a coin to decide to call with a range X of hands? As in to bluff-catch X % of the time yoou need to call with this range and 100-X% you need to fold it. If your hand is in the middle of that range, doesn't that mean that some % they'll be calling worse and some % they'll be folding better?
Personally I've never believed in the 2-way bet, but theoroetically it seems possible considering people do play with that thought process at times

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, you are absolutely right. I think TWP is way off here. A lot of the time you have a hand that you think only beats a bluff, and they all merge together--the relative strengths are pretty much meaningless, there is no threshold determined by hand strength. Often times on the river that is the situation, guy bets, you only beat a bluff. A villain in this hand will sometimess call with Q high and sometimes fold JJ. His decision will be made based on his gut, timing, recent/past history, tilt, etc. The hand threshold thing doesnt make sense.

A bet like this is hard to analyze in a nutshell. However the simple fact remains that it makes you harder to play against when your hand ranges are wider. This kind of line could plant a seed in someone's mind and make river decisions from that point on very hard. A lot of times people feel like their weak hands that only beat a bluff, also start to beat hands they think you might be value betting thin, and then they usually play bad and call too much.

I generally like bets like this, especially because when you check here the villain bluffs close to 0%.

foobar37 · #8 04-27-2007, 03:49 AM

There are times when it's actually correct to fold better hands and call weaker hands because of key cards. Say the board is QT752 with three spades and villain overbet shoves. If villain's range is mostly nuts or air then hero should call AA with the A of spades but fold bottom set. So if you know your opponent is doing this then you can two-way bet with two pair, getting called by AA and folding out sets.

durrrr · #9 04-27-2007, 04:03 AM

[ QUOTE ]

Yes, you are absolutely right. I think TWP is way off here. A lot of the time you have a hand that you think only beats a bluff, and they all merge together--the relative strengths are pretty much meaningless, there is no threshold determined by hand strength. Often times on the river that is the situation, guy bets, you only beat a bluff. A villain in this hand will sometimess call with Q high and sometimes fold JJ. His decision will be made based on his gut, timing, recent/past history, tilt, etc. The hand threshold thing doesnt make sense.

A bet like this is hard to analyze in a nutshell. However the simple fact remains that it makes you harder to play against when your hand ranges are wider. This kind of line could plant a seed in someone's mind and make river decisions from that point on very hard. A lot of times people feel like their weak hands that only beat a bluff, also start to beat hands they think you might be value betting thin, and then they usually play bad and call too much.

I generally like bets like this, especially because when you check here the villain bluffs close to 0%.

[/ QUOTE ]

hrm basically every word strass said...

spino1i · #10 04-27-2007, 04:14 AM

Because the board paired, a single pair you could have on the flop has less outs to outdraw the villain on the turn, allowing him to check behind a big pocket pair without much fear.

I think any bet you make here will defintely be a bluff. That being said, I think he isnt likely to have a T, and I think you get him to fold any pocket pair, so I like a bet here (as you are easily representing a T)