Live 200NL - KK all the way

[KurtSF]

Your typical 1-2 game. Pretty passive but big bets tend to get folds. I have the table covered x2.

2 limpers, EP and MP to me on the button with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and I make it $15. Both limpers call, everyone else folds. Flop comes:

K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

check-check and I bet $30, EP fold MP calls. Pot is $104 after rake. This is the first time I've sat with MP, but based on the last 2 hours he is a LAGgy type player, the kind that takes nits to valuetown on the later streets when he hits 2 pair with J4 against their overpair. Turn comes:

4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Check to me and I bet $75, MP calls. River comes making the board:

K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

MP immediately shoves all-in for his remaining $88. I ask him "You got the flush?" and he says "Nooooo" and shakes his head wildly as if the mere suggestion of the possibility is absurd. I'm 90% sure he's got the flush.

My two main questions are:

1. Given how much equity I had on this hand before the river, can I make this call and be +EV over the long run.

2. I thought there was a reasonable possibility he has two pair and sized my bets based on the pot and with the intention of getting it in on the end. Does anyone shove the turn here?

[MTBlue]

1. Probably, he paid alot to draw to that flush.
2. He doesn't have to have two pair or a bluff here alot to make it a call. You are getting like 345 to 90 on your money. You need to be good here like 22% of the time.

[SABR42]

He prob has KT, call.

[the_rookie]

Kurt- after seeing the river I'd wish you did push the turn, but that's just being results oriented. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] I make the crying call and hope he has two pair or a poorly played set of 6s.

[KurtSF]

My back of the napkin EV calcs are as follows: on the flop I'm about 70% to win this hand so I made 21 sklansky bucks there, and on the turn I'm 80% so I made 60 skalnsky bucks there. Plus my edge preflop, minus putting in ~$90 on the end nearly dead make this, overall, somewhere about break even.

But I know my EV calcs have been suspect in the past. Does anyone have an idea or opinion which way this breaks, slightly + or slightly - EV? Can you tell me how sure (%) I have to be he has the flush (or the gutshot straight) to make it a fold?

TIA.

[MTBlue]

[ QUOTE ]
My back of the napkin EV calcs are as follows: on the flop I'm about 70% to win this hand so I made 21 sklansky bucks there, and on the turn I'm 80% so I made 60 skalnsky bucks there. Plus my edge preflop, minus putting in ~$90 on the end nearly dead make this, overall, somewhere about break even.

But I know my EV calcs have been suspect in the past. Does anyone have an idea or opinion which way this breaks, slightly + or slightly - EV? Can you tell me how sure (%) I have to be he has the flush (or the gutshot straight) to make it a fold?

TIA.

[/ QUOTE ]

You have to multiply the river bet by 7/44 if you want to calculate EV that way (I wouldn't suggest it) (you lose $14 dollars in Skanlsky bucks on the river). If you don't think you are good here 20% of the time here fold, but in a vacuum I think bluffing percentage is 10% and another 10% bad two pair lower sets is reasonable.

[Johnes Benjamin]

If he is prone to calling what if you charge him like 90 on turn instead of 75? 15 more on turn and 15 less to push on river would make a big difference.