what do you like here? Shy villain NL Cash 100

[IronFly]

Villain seems pretty conservative so far. We haven't shown anything down yet.

Table Hope (heads up) - $0.50/$1 - No Limit Hold'em - 14:54:42 ET - 2007/06/24
Seat 1: Hero ($128.35)
Seat 2: Villain ($69.25)
Hero posts the small blind of $0.50
Villain posts the big blind of $1
The button is in seat #1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [3h 4c]
Hero calls $0.50
Villain raises to $3
Hero calls $2
*** FLOP *** [3c 5c 4h]
Villain bets $4
Hero raises to $8
Villain raises to $20
Hero ???

[ChicagoRy]

Probably just shove, looks like he has an overpair and is getting it in.

Why'd you call PF raise?

Edit: Sorry I just glanced at that, yes the minraise is kind of worrisome, I would raise at least 3x. Either way looks like an overpair trying to get it in on a drawy board. Maybe overcards with a f/d and/or gutshot too.

And I still don't think you're deep enough to want to limp-call with 34o profitably to a 3x raise. I don't play HU cash though so maybe not, just doesn't seem very good.

[ivvaen]

Its headsup, theres no problem with calling with 34 every once in a while. I'm more concerned by the mini-reraise on the flop. What exactly are you trying to accomplish with that?

As played I'd shove and hope to be called by an overpair.

[selector2006]

lol. These HH's are always nice. At the moment of playing you're happy to flop 2 pair and want to get it all-in as soon as possible. But when it's posted here I'm thinking he has flopped a straight or a set of 3's.

I go all-in everytime in this spot.

[Stake Monster]

I push in and pray he doesn't have 55

[MasterLJ]

Push. Virtually half the deck is not going to be safe (A,2,6,7,5, any club) for you to see on the turn and a lot of combo draws are going to do this.

[IronFly]

I pushed all-in and villain folded.

I was more worried about losing him on the push than being behind if the money went in. Do you still think pushing is the right play?

[MasterLJ]

[ QUOTE ]
I pushed all-in and villain folded.

I was more worried about losing him on the push than being behind if the money went in. Do you still think pushing is the right play?

[/ QUOTE ]

The best play you can make is having him fold a big draw here... you just profited many times more. When there are too many cards that would make it difficult to push turn, then you cannot milk it further and pushing flop is best.

I'll run a brief example from a hand I played on Saturday.

$0.50/$1.00 HU NL FTP
Hero: $280
Villain: $300

Villain is SB (OTB)
Hero is BB

Hero is dealt: A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Villain raises to $3, Hero raises to $11, Villain calls $8

Flop: A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($22)
Hero bets $18, villain raises to $52, Hero...?

This was a tough call for me (to push or flat call and push turn). There are SO many draws here. There is no doubt he has clubs, but clubs and what? QJc, JTc, 9Xc, QTc? I was fairly certain he'd only raise me on this flop with a combo draw because my 3-bet range in our match was very conservative.

I simply felt that there were too many cards to come on the turn to get milk it farther and ALSO I make more money by pushing and having villain fold, then if we showdown and he does have some combo draw putting his equity around 40%.

To see this:

60% equity of $560 = $336 (return of $56)
Villain has donated $63 to the pot.

The question of EV is actually an answer to the question, which makes me the most money? Sometimes the most money you can make in a situation is still negative, but it is the least negative. If villain calls my shove he's actually making the most "+EV" play in his situation, but it's still a play that is not profitable long run.

[cwar]

[ QUOTE ]
Hero raises to $8

[/ QUOTE ]
You minraised. EWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWW.

[IronFly]

LJ,

At the time, I didn't think villain had a straight draw + another draw. I thought overs + a flush draw was possible, as well as a straight overpair.

Villain was pretty conservative, raising ~30% of his hands, and almost never raising out of the BB. So I don't think he had something like QJs. That leaves pairs (say 88+) and AcKc/Qc. Maybe KcQc.

Given that he folded (ex post info, I know) I don't think he had AA. Weighting all these possibilities equally gives a pokerstove of 70/30 on the flop.

Let's say that I call the $20 bet on the flop. Possible turn cards are:
- blank (as you say, not many of these...)
- flush card
- pairs the board (i.e. boat or poss counterfeit for me)
- straight card
- overcard (dangerous since he may make trips)

As an additional read, this guy is going to put it all in on a "safe" turn.

Sorry I didn't post my additional reads earlier - I wanted to get a sense of what people were thinking as a standard play here. Also, talking through this problem and hearing everyone's thoughts makes the situation more clear.

Now we are getting closer to a math problem. Putting it this way: what %tage of the time does he have to (correctly) fold KK to make it better to wait to the turn? I still think pushing is correct, but I'm going to try to work up some math and post again later (prob tomorrow).

Cwar,

That minraise was so hot it melted the cheese in my refrigerator.