K9s goes for the FS

[murmeltier21]

http://www.pokerhand.org/?1188048

villain is 55/40/3 over 150.
comments on all streets are welcome.
i am especially concerned with the fsdr on the turn. can it be +ev to raise this against a maniac who is spewing with his chips all over the place.
anyone don't like the flop peel?

thanks! [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[sublime11]

so terrible.

[zalazane]

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can it be +ev to raise this against a maniac who is spewing with his chips all over the place.

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Have you seen him 3bet pf a lot? I would just call down unimproved. Can't see him folding a lot of better hands, or what is the point of this raise?

FWIW I have villain on TAG stats (19/16/3.4) after 236 hands.

[yourface]

just call the turn and raise the river if you improve. if villain is a maniac you don't want to stop him from bluffing or betting with a very weak hand that you are crushing, and he has a pair of aces a large % of the time


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so terrible.

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oh boy, another quality poster. welcome to the forums

[UtzChips]

If I'm reading the hand history correctly, your opponent 3 bet PF.

Since he is a maniac, raising 40% PF, I'm seeing the Turn with this Flop. The only hands that have me drawing dead to the Runner Flush right now are AK/KK/A7.

I'm just calling him down though.

When you are behind, you'll be paying an additional 2 bets on the Turn when he 3 bets and 1 when he doesn't. Since:
1. He is a maniac.
2. You didn’t raise the Flop.
3. He has a hand that beats split kings, so he is 3 betting all the time.

So, you are paying an additional 2 bets on the Turn to draw to your Flush and 5 outs to a K or 9 when he doesn’t have one of the above hands.

For the sake of simplicity, I am going to say that you always have 14 outs, therefore, you’ll improve to the best hand 29.79% of the time.

So, the 70.21% of the time you don’t improve, you lose the additional 2 bets (your raise and his 3 bet) on the Turn.

That’s .7021 * 2 = -1.4042 Bbs.

You win an additional 2 bets * .2979 = .5958 Bbs.

You net loss on your raise on the Turn when you are behind going into the River: -.8084 Bbs.

When you are ahead on the Turn, I am going to say that he will grasp the fact that his hand is not the best and just call.

So, your net return in those instances is 1 BB.

So, so long as:
1. You always have 14 outs when you are behind.
2. Your opponent always calls your raise on the Turn and doesn’t fold
3. Doesn’t ck/fold the River when he is behind, due to your raise on the Turn, when he is behind.
4. If he always calls you when you make your Flush, when he couldn’t beat Split Kings on the Turn.
5. He doesn’t muck on the Turn to your raise.
6. You are only behind 50% of the time.

Well then, you’ll net an additional .4042 Bbs long term.

I think.........I’m not an expert, but that’s what I come up with. Doesn’t look promising.

[Oink]

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so terrible.

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I cant wait to read your 3'rd post!

@OP

I would just call the turn for the same reasons Yourface gave

[Scorcho]

Call the turn. You're not ahead most of the time here so you're not raising for value and you have very minimal fold equity. Even if he has JJ here, he's seeing a showdown.

[kaby]

Why is no one mentioning the possibility that a turn raise is for value? He's betting flop&turn with any two cards he 3bet pf, and when we give him a range of 20% we are ahead, hell even vs a range of 15% we are ahead.

I'm not so certain 55/40/3's
1) don't 3bet a worse hand
2) fold worse hand when raised, even when it's air

Without reads (why don't you have WtSD stats on your HUD? [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]) maybe the standard call turn raise river improved is best, but when I know villain is showing down (or even just calling the turn with a worse hand) when raised I raise this turn for value

oh, and btw:

So, so long as:
1. You always have 14 outs when you are behind.

If you are behind it's to Ax alot, and 9's aren't outs vs Ax [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[UtzChips]

[ QUOTE ]
Why is no one mentioning the possibility that a turn raise is for value? He's betting flop&turn with any two cards he 3bet pf, and when we give him a range of 20% we are ahead, hell even vs a range of 15% we are ahead.

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe because approx 40% of the holdings in the top 15% are Ax and 38% of the top 20% are Ax.

About the only time opponent will 3 bet the Turn is when he is ahead.

When he is betting weak, or with air, our raise on the Turn will probably get a call, but he'll probably ck/fold the River.

If we just call down and raise the River when we make our Flush, he'll likely call out of resentment.

[ QUOTE ]
So, so long as:
1. You always have 14 outs when you are behind.

If you are behind it's to Ax alot, and 9's aren't outs vs Ax

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I forgot to mention that I was changing the Turn card to one that didn't pair the board, so that we could look at the best case scenario. Then Hero is drawing to 2 pair also v. Ax

[milesdyson]

"He's betting flop&turn with any two cards he 3bet pf"

not true. don't simplify this much to try to prove somethin

"when we give him a range of 20% we are ahead, hell even vs a range of 15% we are ahead."

he has to call for a raise to be for value.