10NL - AA, reason to bet Turn?

[phydaux]

Here's an interesting hand that showcases an interesting poker problem, one that I am currently grappling with:

What is the reason why we bet?

Until recently I have always been of the school "If you believe you have the best hand, bet." This is fine and all, but I find you win small pots when you're right, and lose big pots when you're wrong.

Quite often when I post on threads here and recommend a bet, one of the more senior players will make a comment, very much off the cuff, that "That bet won't make a better hand fold" or "What hand worst than yours calls that bet?"

This has lead me into thinking more deceptively and trying to bet more deceptively. And that is what brings us to today's hand.


This is only the second hand I was dealt on this table, so no reads on anyone thus far.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (7 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP1 ($8.46)
MP2 ($7.52)
Hero ($5.95)
Button ($6.35)
SB ($5.92)
BB ($2.11)
UTG ($5.57)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP2 calls $0.05, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $0.20</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP2 calls $0.15.

I wish there has been more limpers, but at least I got a caller.

Flop: ($0.42) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets $0.15</font>, Hero calls $0.15.

Turn: ($0.72) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP2 checks, Hero...

My "natural" play is to bet here, probably 2/3 the pot. But then I started thinking... In my mind, there was no way MP2 could call a bet here with a hand worse than mine. If he has a J, then he has to assume if I bet that I'm not afraid of a J (and I'm not). If he has a T or pocket jacks, then I'm crushed. The only possible bad thing is that now there is a flush draw on the board.

If we assume that MP2's most likely hands are Jx or xx[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], then MP2 has ~10 outs. That gives my aces 80% pot equity.

Do you bet here, and hope MP2 likes his J enough to pay you off? Do you check and hope for a blank on the river? And what if a J or a [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] falls on the river? Do you bet if he checks? Do you call if he bets? How big a bet do you call?

[BT2]

i do not agree with your logic. villain calls with AJ very often.

[threads13]

This is a perfect spot to bet behind, especially if you are against an aggressive opponent.

The more aggressive the opponent, the more this is a check.

There is a great chapter on this in HPFAP called "Inducing Bluffs"(or something very close to that). Even though that book is a limit book, that chapter explains this concept very well. Also, bluff induction is even more important in NL due to the size of the bluff.

I am betting about half of the pot generally on the river. This, of course, changes depending on my reads of the player.

If you check behind this turn you are committing yourself to calling any reasonable river bet.

[CazicT]

Yeah I think you bet here, he could be drawing or AJ would call or a med. pocket pair might call. If he had a monster he probably would bet, or maybe you'll get check raised rarely, but I wouldn't fear that.

Like other poster said, if it is an aggro player who would take a check behind as weakness and fire away on the river then maybe a check behind would be OK sometimes, but I don't think that should be your routine play.

Don't get me wrong, there are many times when you should check behind the turn, but I don't think this is one of them.

Edit: And to anwser you other questions, if I did check behind the trun and a jack fell I would not bet if checked to, but if a diamond fell I probably would bet if checked to. A backdoor flush shouldn't generally be worried about until the villian gives you a reason to worry.

Also i'd like to say that the size of the pot has alot to do with the decision whether to check behind the turn or not. In this case the pot isn't that big so there is no reason to try to check to keep it small.

[Jeff76]

Villain also may call a bet with 22-99, believe that you floated him (or since this is NL10, because "ZOMG I HAVE A PAIR!!!!!).

[raistlinx]

[ QUOTE ]
My "natural" play is to bet here, probably 2/3 the pot. But then I started thinking... In my mind, there was no way MP2 could call a big bet here with a hand worse than mine.

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP. Bet 1/2 the pot.

[threads13]

Perhaps I should have specified more clearly.

If you player you are HU with is a decent player with a head on his shoulders then you should check the turn usually.

If you are playing against a terrible player you should bet the turn AND the river if checked to.

[Panthro]

You're underestimating how often a villain will call a turn bet (or even a flop raise) with a worst hand.

Edit: And don't be afraid to use the bet/fold line. You can always fold to a raise if your value bet encounters resistance.

[threads13]

[ QUOTE ]
You're underestimating how often a villain will call a turn bet (or even a flop raise) with a worst hand.

Edit: And don't be afraid to use the bet/fold line. You can always fold to a raise if your value bet encounters resistance.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, I am not underestimating it. I just realize that our hand is showdown worthy and you can induce a bluff from a decent aggressive player.

I specified a check against a decent, thinking, aggressive player. Against someone like that, what are they calling this turn bet with? They are more likely to raise you off a hand than call with a worse one.

[Jeff76]

[ QUOTE ]
I specified a check against a decent, thinking, aggressive player. Against someone like that, what are they calling this turn bet with? They are more likely to raise you off a hand than call with a worse one.

[/ QUOTE ]I also check this against decent players. There COULD be drawing hands out with a JT board, but most of the time we are WA/WB against villain's range, so a free card isn't really a big deal. Against a decent player we are never getting three streets worth of betting in (if we are ahead), but we'll get two more often if we check behind on the turn (either because he'll bluff on the river or call a value bet with a small pair).

If we end up showing this down, checking behind also helps us with our AK hands that we c-bet and then check behind on the turn.

EDIT: At the level specified, though, I probably just keep firing because there are lots of calling stations who will call 3 streets worth of betting with a worse hand.