Win rate in Bellagio $15-30 games

bonovox007 · #1 06-14-2007, 11:53 AM

What is a good win rate, in terms of money, for a loose/passive $15-30 game like those that run at the Bellagio? Is it possible to make $60-80K per year playing 40-45 hours per week in such a game? My style of play does very well in such games, but seems not to do as well in more aggressive games such as the $20-40 at the Mirage. Speaking of which, what is everyone's opinion of the profit potential of that game? It is definitely aggressive, although a lot of it is misplaced aggression, but there are always at least 2-3 fish in the game that add lots of chips to the pots.

Thank you for all responses.

cgrohman · #2 06-14-2007, 12:13 PM

When I played there reguarly I was around 2.25BB/hr but I aint that great.

bonovox007 · #3 06-14-2007, 12:16 PM

Really? $60-70 per hour? Is that sustainable?

cgrohman · #4 06-14-2007, 01:58 PM

I did it for about 6 months or so. Variance was pretty high on a day to day basis. Played 40 hrs a week. Also, this was several years ago.

Justin A · #5 06-14-2007, 02:30 PM

$50/hr would be really good. $30/hr is more reasonable.

sternroolz · #6 06-14-2007, 07:02 PM

I'm over 2BB an hour in it but not nearly enough hours and probably not sustainable. I notice that the game can get pretty tough. I know I played one time where there were several other 2+2ers at the table and another time where there were zero passive fish and the only reason the game was beatable was because there were 2 lagtards who kept overplaying their hands. They clobbered most of the weak/scarred/tight players that were at the table, but myself and another 2+2er kinda cleaned their clocks by simply calling down nearly every hand we entered the pot with.

On other occasions though, the players were just awful fish and the games were good.

Another thing is that I don't generally play during the day. I have found the daytime games more difficult.

And FWIW, I think the Mirage $10-20 is a pretty beatable game, and the Wynn $15-30 is very good sometimes too.

One more thing....in your post you ask about yearly income potential. I assume that means you are considering a move to Vegas to try being a pro. I need to comment on that. #1 I cannot imagine trying to make a living at these levels for a whole host of reasons. #2 I don't think mid limit holdem games in Vegas are a good way to make a living, particularly $10-20 up to $30-60. There are not a lot of games, and a few times a year, there are very few games.

If you did want to pursue poker as a career, I highly recommend getting a job with benefits(regardless of pay) that allows you to work 20-30 hours a week and supplementing that work with your poker play. I'm not sure that very many people are capable of sustained winning play combined with riding out variance at these levels of limit play.

vmacosta · #7 06-14-2007, 08:52 PM

[ QUOTE ]
$50/hr would be really good. $30/hr is more reasonable.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the most reasonable figures yet and even this may be on the high side imo. Every time I see one of these threads I want to butt in and say that games have to be running short in order for people to realize this 1.5-2 bb/hr number. I don't know about Bellagio 15, but most smaller games you have to play at off-peak hours in order to play short.

In a 10-handed live game though you vpip about 7 hands/hour and I just don't think it's likely you'll see more than 1.25 bb/hr.

There is also the issue of the rake (or is this a time game?) which means you have to chop blinds and defend and steal less than optimal.

Obviously people are gonna have 2+ bb/hr over long periods of time but that doesn't mean much since live winrate takes lifetimes to converge lol.

private joker · #8 06-14-2007, 08:56 PM

I'm a losing player at that game. The worse my opponents, the more I lose. I can play for 6 months at Commerce and not go on tilt as fast as I could in 6 hours at Bellagio 15.

Last year my job was taking chips from the Wynn 15 table and depositing them at the Bellagio 15 table. I left Vegas after 5 days having pretty much broken even, winning big at Wynn and losing it all back at Bellagio. And the Bellagio games were far juicier.

bonovox007 · #9 06-14-2007, 11:08 PM

Let me explain my situation. I am 25, single, and currently in the Air Force and work as a chemical engineer. My position is being cut and I have to find something anyway. I have the bankroll, living expenses, and skill necessary to give it a try for 6-12 months. My montly nut is in the neighborhood of $2300. At $30-35/hr, 40-45 hrs/wk, how is this even close to being a bad idea? I fully understand the concept of variance, hence the bankroll and savings, but even if I'm a marginal winner at these stakes, I will at least be able to tread water and cover expenses for a year or so, experience playing for a living, and still have an engineering degree and work experience to get a "real" job if I decide I want one. What am I missing?

Abbaddabba · #10 06-15-2007, 02:48 AM

Golden rule of live winrate threads:

The higher the winrate someone claims to sustain, the less they tend to be capable of.

2 bets an hour implies 6B/100.
Maybe it's possible if you pick only the best games.
But you'll have a hard time putting in as many hours as you want to if you only play in the easiest games.

[ QUOTE ]
What am I missing?

[/ QUOTE ]

The fact that you can make more playing smaller stakes and fewer hours online, if you're good enough.

I dont think playing live 'professionally' is worthwhile below the 30/60 level. And because the gap in skill is pretty negligable between 15/30 and 30/60, there's not much of a reason to play lower unless you dont have the cash to.