100NLAKo weird pre-flop action; a cold caller shoves over 3bet; call?

[Lego05]

Main villian is 33.9/11.86/.81

So by my math I'm getting ~1.35 to 1. What the hell is this guy doing? And am I calling this?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero ($100)
BB ($74.90)
UTG ($106.85)
MP ($171)
Button ($141.30)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls $1, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises to $4</font>, Button calls $4, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $18</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG folds, MP folds, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $141.3</font>, Hero ???

[thac]

I usually call here because it's hardly ever AA or KK, and there's a reasonably chance you're up against a lesser ace sometimes.

[tarheeljks]

by the numbers (1:1.35) we need 43%, or in other words we need him to have QQ or worse the majority of the time. i don't think this is the case. i've got the villain on AK/QQ and i think it's like 35% equity (didn't stove it but feel free to). also, i think it's highly unlikely that he's doing this w/ worse than AK

[Logun]

I don't like a call here, I usually see AA/KK here with AK/QQ or less, only about 30% of the time. If you really want to flip coins for stacks, just post I'm sure some one will take you up on it.

[Logun]

but then again he is a 34.... if this is a decent enough sample I don't mind the call

[Lego05]

[ QUOTE ]
but then again he is a 34.... if this is a decent enough sample I don't mind the call

[/ QUOTE ]

Sample is 59 hands. Forgot to include that.

[tarheeljks]

even if the sample size is reliable, in this spot his pfr% is a more useful stat than his %vpip.

[JNuey]

I think this is an easy call, this play is very fishy on villain's part IMO

[Lego05]

[ QUOTE ]
by the numbers (1:1.35) we need 43%, or in other words we need him to have QQ or worse the majority of the time. i don't think this is the case. i've got the villain on AK/QQ and i think it's like 35% equity (didn't stove it but feel free to). also, i think it's highly unlikely that he's doing this w/ worse than AK

[/ QUOTE ]

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

431,500,608 games 0.005 secs 86,300,121,600 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.824% 18.14% 20.68% 78295380 89232168.00 { AKo }
Hand 1: 61.176% 40.50% 20.68% 174740892 89232168.00 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }



Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

1,541,073,600 games 0.005 secs 308,214,720,000 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.178% 37.23% 05.94% 573815220 91594164.00 { AKo }
Hand 1: 56.822% 50.88% 05.94% 784070052 91594164.00 { 33+, AKs, AKo }




Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

369,857,664 games 0.005 secs 73,971,532,800 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.568% 18.14% 24.43% 67099884 90341820.00 { AKo }
Hand 1: 57.432% 33.01% 24.43% 122074140 90341820.00 { KK+, AQs+, AKo }


Ok so assuming your right that I need 43% equity it looks like he has to be doing this with like any pair.....or AQ or some other random hand.


Would love to hear more people chime in on what they think his range is. And whether or not they call at the table.

[tarheeljks]

i am more inclined to extend the pp range than to include AQ. also, i think your equity is lower; you need to take out the As and Kd out of the AKo/AKs combos. anyway, like i said b/f, i think his pfr$ of ~12 is more significant than his vpip of ~34.