ISYMIYSMY: Flopped Two Pair

KingOtter · #1 06-12-2007, 05:38 PM

ISYMIYSMY: My cheap way of making people want to read the thread. It means "I'll show you mine if you show me yours."

Hypothesis: Flopped 2-pair is a deceptively dangerous hand, that can be counterfeited quite often. Equity is nowhere near what people might think.

Here's what I'd like for us to compare:

1. A hand where you flopped two-pair. Top two, middle two, bottom two... all are welcome. Show your hand and the flop.
2. Poker-stove analysis based on your opponent's range.

Example:

PokerStars 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, MP calls, 2 folds, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (4 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)

UTG: 51/3
MP: 45/0
SB: 77/0

Using their PT stats I get nice equity:

Hand 0: 71.497% 73.29% 00.46% 2253355 14289.00 { Qs4d }
Hand 1: 09.170% 09.17% 00.28% 282091 8741.83 { TT-33, ATs-A2s, KJs-K2s, Q2s+, J4s+, T6s+, 96s+, 86s+, 75s+, 65s, AQo-A2o, K4o+, Q7o+, J7o+, T7o+, 98o }
Hand 2: 10.072% 10.10% 00.29% 310634 8824.00 { 44+, A2s+, K2s+, Q4s+, J6s+, T6s+, 96s+, 86s+, 76s, A2o+, K6o+, Q8o+, J8o+, T8o+, 98o }
Hand 3: 09.260% 09.15% 00.40% 281298 12408.17 { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 92s+, 82s+, 73s+, 63s+, 52s+, 43s, A2o+, K2o+, Q2o+, J4o+, T5o+, 95o+, 85o+, 75o+, 65o }

But there is that flush draw... thought I'd see that in the PokerStove a bit better.

Anyway, that's what I'm talking about. I'm trying to get a feel for flopped two-pair equity and would like to see if we can gather our data a bit and compare hands. I'm not looking for bad-beats or anything... just your two-pair, your reads, and the PokerStove.

Or even if you want to suggest a different approach.

Niediam · #2 06-12-2007, 07:15 PM

Is there a practical application to this or are you just curious? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

KingOtter · #3 06-12-2007, 08:42 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Is there a practical application to this or are you just curious? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Just curious, and figured I'd get a wider sample here and we could compare it and talk about it.

Bona · #4 06-12-2007, 10:07 PM

Hero is loose passive fish in small blind 20/11/3.5 at this table and running hot.
BB is 44/0/.16 97 hands Not apt to fold or raise.
MP is reasonable and pretty aggressive26/16/2.2 He can find a fold. He is probably the only one paying attention to the other players.
Button is 59/11/.61 very loose preflop kind of passive post flop.

PokerStars 0.50/1.00 Hold'em (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
2 folds, MP1 raises, 2 folds, Button 3-bets, Hero caps, BB calls, MP1 calls, Button calls.

After preflop I estimate:

BB= any A, anyK, any pair, SC 54+, any suited Q or J, 75s+, Q5o+ 59.6%

MP= ATs+, 77+, AQ+, KQs, KQo raising range est 8.7%

Button= Any A, Any pair, SC 67+, Q7s+, K6s+, K80+, Q9o+ 32.3% of hands.

Poker stove sez: EQUITIES:Hero 51%, BB 14%, MP 20%, Button 15%

Flop: (16 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero bets, BB calls, MP1 calls, Button calls.

Post flop equitues: Hero 49%, BB 16%, MP 20%, Button 15%

Turn: (10 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero bets, BB calls, MP1 folds, Button calls.

Post turn equities: Hero 59%, BB 19%, Button 22%

River: (13 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets, BB folds, Button calls $0.95 (All-In).

Final Pot: 14.95 BB

Yes. I have no idea why i did this. Or what I learned from it. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

KingOtter · #5 06-12-2007, 11:44 PM

hmm, shoulda pointed out pair in hand and pair on board was not the kind of 'flopped 2-pair' I meant.

Oh well...it sounded great in my head.

marchron · #6 06-13-2007, 12:20 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Hypothesis: Flopped 2-pair is a deceptively dangerous hand, that can be counterfeited quite often. Equity is nowhere near what people might think.

[/ QUOTE ]
It's nigh unto impossible to counterfeit top two. Yeah, you can get a running pair higher than the lower of your top two, like say you hold QT and the board goes QT2JJ, but someone would have to have exactly Jx, KQ, AQ, KK or AA for that to matter, and the odds of that parlay are thin, especially if you hold cards that are semiconnected, and most of us would unless we're in the blinds. (You can also lose to an overpair if a running small pair comes off, like QT vs. AA on QT255, but that's not technically "counterfeiting" since your hand of Queens over Tens never changes.)

I mean, two pair is the third-worst hand rank possible, so common sense tells us not to treat it like it's OMG TEH NUTZ. But top two on a dry board is a veritable monster because of the nature of Hold'em, and while we should jam flopped top-and-bottom or bottom two for protection, top two is something we're raising for pure value.

tehox · #7 06-13-2007, 12:28 AM

I haven't been playing much poker anyomre, and don't have access to my PT database. But I think more or less you have 2pair you ram and jam. In limped pots some might overplay TP or some might overplay draws, or call down with weak draws.

KingOtter · #8 06-13-2007, 12:49 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I haven't been playing much poker anyomre, and don't have access to my PT database. But I think more or less you have 2pair you ram and jam. In limped pots some might overplay TP or some might overplay draws, or call down with weak draws.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's similar to what my thoughts were on 2-pair, but I'm starting to feel they are more vulnerable than I thought.

I'm not sure if it's bottom 2-pair, mid 2-pair or what 2-pair problems I'm having, but all I know is that when I have 2-pair on the flop I'm not as happy with my hand as I used to be. That's why I wanted to see a bunch... and it'd be cool to have them stoved.

I know they're hard to find in PT... which is why I thought a community thing might be good... but there doesn't seem to be much interest in it.

tehox · #9 06-13-2007, 12:55 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I haven't been playing much poker anyomre, and don't have access to my PT database. But I think more or less you have 2pair you ram and jam. In limped pots some might overplay TP or some might overplay draws, or call down with weak draws.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's similar to what my thoughts were on 2-pair, but I'm starting to feel they are more vulnerable than I thought.

I'm not sure if it's bottom 2-pair, mid 2-pair or what 2-pair problems I'm having, but all I know is that when I have 2-pair on the flop I'm not as happy with my hand as I used to be. That's why I wanted to see a bunch... and it'd be cool to have them stoved.

I know they're hard to find in PT... which is why I thought a community thing might be good... but there doesn't seem to be much interest in it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Potentially one thing is that it doesn't really matter is what your equity is before any action on the flop. People are going to fold their worst hands.

edited to add that people are still prob not going to really care. I think you are not losing money when you flo ptwo pair. If you post specific hadns, with specific reads on opponents then you might have something to discuss, but if you get dealt Q5 everytime, and and flop is Q54 everyimte, you are playing 50/100 in like 2 weeks

Bona · #10 06-13-2007, 08:20 AM

I don't know if this enhances the discourse but I was a little surprised to find that my W$AS when I have 2 pair as the winning hand was only 55.12%. I would have thought it would be higher. Does this mean I call down too often with them? Maybe. Or is 55% typical?