stars .25/.50

meektm · #1 06-09-2007, 02:50 PM

Hi all,

No reads, and sorry for the hand coverter errors (I can't seem to avoid it). In the first hand, how much money do I need to expect to make in order to make it profitable to play low sets here?

PokerStars 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 6

, 6

.
UTG calls, [color=#666666]3 folds, MP3 calls, [color=#666666]2 folds, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (4 SB) 6

, A

, K

[color=#0000FF](4 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG checks, [color=#CC3333]MP3 bets, Hero calls, BB folds, UTG calls.

Turn: (3.50 BB) J

[color=#0000FF](3 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks, [color=#CC3333]MP3 bets, [color=#CC3333]Hero raises, UTG calls, MP3 calls.

River: (9.50 BB) 8

[color=#0000FF](3 players)
[color=#CC3333]Hero bets, UTG calls, MP3 calls.

Final Pot: 12.50 BB

PokerStars 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (9 handed)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q

, A

.
[color=#666666]2 folds, MP1 calls, [color=#666666]3 folds, Button calls, [color=#666666]1 fold, [color=#CC3333]Hero raises, MP1 calls, [color=#CC3333]Button 3-bets, Hero calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (9.40 SB) 5

, 3

, T

[color=#0000FF](3 players)
[color=#CC3333]Hero bets, MP1 calls, Button calls.

Turn: (6.20 BB) A

[color=#0000FF](3 players)
[color=#CC3333]Hero bets, MP1 calls, Button calls.

River: (9.20 BB) 9

[color=#0000FF](3 players)
[color=#CC3333]Hero bets, MP1 folds, Button calls.

Final Pot: 11.20 BB

fretelöo · #2 06-09-2007, 02:54 PM

You have to specify that you want 2+2 format in the converter settings.

First hand, bet flop. How'd you know that someone is going to bet for you?

Second hand, w/out a read, I c/r buttons likely c-bet.

Thomas Newton · #3 06-09-2007, 03:24 PM

Why are you checking the flop? Bet it.
Check raising when the straightener hits is meh - just bet it.

This might be the low set but you have the strongest hand here on the flop - bet and raise.

meektm · #4 06-09-2007, 03:35 PM

I figured more likely than not, mp3 had something, an A,K or mid pair. But even with something like QJ, JT, low pair he might steal/bet when it's checked to him with the rainbow out. In this situation he can represent an ace even if he doesn't have one, so I expected a bet here.

In the end, he did have one. I think you make more money by c/r the turn with someone who holds an ace here. If you knew he had the ace, the play here seems correct. If he doesn't have the ace, what is he calling the flop with if you bet from SB?

Betting from sb seems to signal a lot of strength. UTG here happened to have KJs. I can see a person folding this hand with a small pot if I were to bet out from sb, which says "aces or better". On the other hand, if I c/r, he'll run away also.

I was lucky to have him twopair his KJ on the turn, which is why I think he called the check raise on the turn. In summary, I think you can often expect a bet here if they have something that will make you money, and if you bet on the flop you won't make much just betting straight through. In this hand I gained an extra 4bbs.

The only fear is letting the gutshot draw for free, to be weary of JQT on the turn, but other wise you are fairly safe. I think many times you will expect an ace or king by the other two players and you want them to catch their 2nd pair?

meektm · #5 06-09-2007, 03:43 PM

In addition, if I'm not willing to play this way, is it even justified to limp with pocket sixes? I feel like I need either lots of raising on the flop or one raise at least on the turn, then a call on river to make this even worth calling.

One last thing, if someone hits their gutshot, won't they let you know? You can run from the three-bet after you c/r no? Moreover, if he gets the gutshot, then he gets it. He's something like 12 to 1 to hit it right? He doesn't have the implied odds to chase.

marchron · #6 06-09-2007, 03:43 PM

[ QUOTE ]
In the end, he did have one. I think you make more money by c/r the turn with someone who holds an ace here. If you knew he had the ace, the play here seems correct. If he doesn't have the ace, what is he calling the flop with if you bet from SB?

[/ QUOTE ]

1. Bet the flop.
2. Wait to be raised.
3. Check/raise the turn.
4. If nobody raises, a bet-bet-bet line is not illegal.
5. Profit.

Thomas Newton · #7 06-09-2007, 03:46 PM

Some assumption you make about what people will do if they have this or that will at times be wrong.

Without reads at 25/50 on PS my assumption is generally that players are passive. I personally would not check this with two broadway cards on the flop. I would not give them the chance to check it through. If they have anything, they will call. Try to get value for what you have.

meektm · #8 06-09-2007, 03:53 PM

I'm not convinced of the bet bet bet line for a set. I think hitting your set is 7.5 smallbets:1.

If the utg folds after your flop bet, you are profiting 8 small bets, making your profit essentially 1 sb = .25 cents when figuring all the times you miss (assuming villain mp3 has ace). Since the rake is .1 cents, you are then making .15 cents. This is of course assuming he has an ace. When he doesn't and they fold you are def. not making your 7.5 small bets?

Thomas Newton · #9 06-09-2007, 04:28 PM

Are you including in your analysis the possibility that your set will not always win?

As far as I can tell you are not considering the texture of the flop. How often do you think you might be outdrawn in this situation? Say, by strt, back door flush or higher fh?

Enough to consider in your analysis?

fretelöo · #10 06-09-2007, 04:43 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not convinced of the bet bet bet line for a set. I think hitting your set is 7.5 smallbets:1.

If the utg folds after your flop bet, you are profiting 8 small bets, making your profit essentially 1 sb = .25 cents when figuring all the times you miss (assuming villain mp3 has ace). Since the rake is .1 cents, you are then making .15 cents. This is of course assuming he has an ace. When he doesn't and they fold you are def. not making your 7.5 small bets?

[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

You call with 66 to hit a set. You have to include the possibility of being outdrawn, so you can estimate to have to make 10x your preflop investment postflop. In micro-stakes, ppl will call far too much. In micro-stakes, ppl will generally be passive and tend not to necessarily bet the holdings they are willing to show down. How are you going to collect the 10x pf-investment if not by getting money in the middle?

All your calculating of rake and whatnot basically just ammounts to "I wanna trap trap trap everyone for the maxxxxxxxxxxx."
In general, this is not a losing, but a win-minimizing strategy.