$4/$8: KK in Ginormous B&M Pot

[RobertJohn]

I'm having a debate with a friend on what is the best play in a somewhat common spot in our local game. We've gone over both of our reasonings, but I wanted to see what everyone thought here. Here's the hand:

A buddy of mine was playing at a local degen club (Hawaiian Gardens). It was a $4/$8 game with a kill.

<font color="blue">Table reads:</font> The game is sick as usual. People will cold-call caps with 53o, etc. They play more than 40% of their hands pre. They also like to cap preflop frequently. Postflop they call with any kind of draw and will go to showdown with weak hands like middle pair and sometimes even bottom pair. They will chase any over(s).

A kill pot hand came up where he had KK in the CO. He ended up calling a cap from the button and the pot went five way to the flop.

FLOP: QJx rainbow (20 small bets minus rake).

It gets checked to him.

What is his best play here?

[StrictlyStrategy]

If you select the third option you immediately get banned.

[BigBadBabar]

well if we're in the co there's going to be a bet to us on the flop, so raise that bet. we can't lead into anybody from the co.

[BigBadBabar]

whoops didn't see it was checked to us on the flop. sorry about my previous post.
bet? lol? i don't get it.
3bet a raise.

[Niediam]

[ QUOTE ]
bet? lol? i don't get it.
3bet a raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Bingo.

[ProfessorBen]

Bet/3-Bet. This isn't even debatable.

[Niediam]

[ QUOTE ]
Bet/3-Bet. This isn't even debatable.

[/ QUOTE ]

Let's not go that far... how about an argument along the lines of:

We have a very big pot here with only a good hand (1 pair) and would like to protect our hand from various draws. Unfortunately the pot is so big that nothing we do on the flop will get anything but the worst draws to fold. So how about we just call the flop and then lead the turn hoping that the preflop capper then raising with something like AQ? That way hopefully we can stop anybody with one pair and having 5outs or with a gutshot from outdrawing on the river.

[BigBadBabar]

niediam, that's totally wishful and unrealistic thinking. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

the pot is huge and it's not very likely that a live 4/8 player is folding any piece or draw. the babar doctrine in these pots is to mash it up so that the times we don't get sucked out on = big pots for us.

[Niediam]

[ QUOTE ]
niediam, that's totally wishful and unrealistic thinking. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

the pot is huge and it's not very likely that a live 4/8 player is folding any piece or draw. the babar doctrine in these pots is to mash it up so that the times we don't get sucked out on = big pots for us.

[/ QUOTE ]

In that case how about:

Let's wait for the turn to raise if nobody is going to fold. That way we can get more money in the pot by waiting until the bet doubles. Plus if a really bad bad such as a Q or an A falls we can save money by playing the flop slow and if we end up showing the KK down everybody else at the table will wonder in the future when we only call the flop if we have a big hand or just overs or maybe a draw. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[RobertJohn]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
niediam, that's totally wishful and unrealistic thinking. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

the pot is huge and it's not very likely that a live 4/8 player is folding any piece or draw. the babar doctrine in these pots is to mash it up so that the times we don't get sucked out on = big pots for us.

[/ QUOTE ]

In that case how about:

Let's wait for the turn to raise if nobody is going to fold. That way we can get more money in the pot by waiting until the bet doubles. Plus if a really bad bad such as a Q or an A falls we can save money by playing the flop slow and if we end up showing the KK down everybody else at the table will wonder in the future when we only call the flop if we have a big hand or just overs or maybe a draw. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Niedam, this was my friend's argument almost exactly and so basically we're debating whether he should lead/3-bet the field on the flop or check-call and check-raise the field on the turn.

No matter what you do, you can’t protect your hand due to the size of the pot. Even if you lead and get raised by the button preflop capper, the field will be getting 11.5-to-1 which makes it correct to call with any four out draw or more. Granted, I will 3-bet which cuts down on their price (and makes me money), but if they call the raise they will call my reraise.

If the button capper has: JJ+,AJ+, and KQ, and the rest of the field might coldcall with something like any pair, any OESD, any gutshot, an over+ backdoor flush draw, etc. the layout looks something like:

Me = 37% equity on the flop
Preflop Capper = 27%
Opponent 1 = 12%
Opponent 2 = 12%
Opponent 3 = 12%

So, if the button raises and the others cold-call, I think he has to 3-bet for value because his flop equity edge is too big. My friend however, thinks he should wait for the turn in order to c/r then (on a blank) and trap everyone when his equity edge is greater than on the flop and he can get double bets from loose callers.

This might have merit in a smaller pot, on a less drawy board, and with Aces (rather than Kings), but in this situation I think he has to lead/3-bet if given the opportunity and lead turn, mainly for value and for the small chance that someone might incorrectly fold a four or five out draw on the flop.