AQd on monotone flop: Could be for value, could be FE

BarryLyndon · #1 08-03-2007, 12:06 PM

Blinds 100/200

Hero (3,500), UTG+1
Villain (2,800), MP1

There is a 50/50 chance Villain will bet if I check - he may trying to float me, as I've been the most aggressive at table and him the most responsive. But he's not a great flop player, so I don't really know if he thinks this way, and he is in MP after all. Anyway:

Folds to Hero from UTG+1 with A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] to 550, Villain calls in MP2, folds

Flop: 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (pot 1400)

Hero bets 1400.

The pot was big and I wanted to committ myself + get some FE against pocket pairs, which I'm sure there are a few in his range. Take it down or get it in felt standard.

However, I was confused about my best line because:

1. There is value I'm getting from a fold
2. There is value I'm getting from a call (Kdx, Adx).
3. There value I'm getting from a CR here.

Which is my best line?

Barry

PantsOnFire · #2 08-03-2007, 12:42 PM

I think the most value you get here is a fold. I would just shove the flop. It would really look like a big pair afraid of the turn card. The only hands that screw you royally are the A or K high made flush (well also a pair of red As or red Ks but those are highly unlikely).

I think a CR would end up giving him odds to call with a range of hands.

You are also out of position so this is not a good pot to play poker.

SonofDjugashvili · #3 08-03-2007, 12:49 PM

You were up against AA or KK weren't you? [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] The guy flat-called you P/F for ~20% of his stack - either he is an idiot or he's trapping a LAG player with a monster. Is he an idiot?

valenzuela · #4 08-03-2007, 01:08 PM

Easy shove IMO, villain has 2250 and the pot is 1400. Shoving the flop is unexploitable if villain folds most of the time its +EV, if villain calls most of the time youre hand will have enough equity.

Dave D · #5 08-03-2007, 02:01 PM

I don't like the raise PF, I don;'t think you're protecting your hand enough. I'd make it 700 to go, maybe even 800 because it's AQ and you're so out of position. I don't really even mind taking down the blinds.

I think a push is really excessive on this flop. Nothing calls except something we're a dog to (yes we have redraws) or a flippament to. I think I would bet like 1000 here and call a push (hands that push are probaly hands we're a 50/50 with and we've got a decent overlay).

I think also if you'd raised more PF this hand becomes a little easier to play as the stacks are a little less awkward. Namely there's 2000 in the pot on the flop if you make it 800 to go and villian would only have 2000 left. Easy push. As played your push is a little too excessive, but I guess not really "wrong".

Also, what site is this. On stars I think he folds for 1000 a lot of the time, on tilt he might call/push.

PantsOnFire · #6 08-03-2007, 02:21 PM

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As played your push is a little too excessive, but I guess not really "wrong".

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I don't see how a push is excessive. Is there any way you are going to play this hand for less than all your chips?

There are only two choices here, either put in zero more chips or put in all your chips. If I had a good made hand, I'd try to get villain in with me. With this hand, I don't mind him folding so I don't see a better option than shove.

Stumpy · #7 08-03-2007, 03:20 PM

I think I disagree with everything Dave said.

Betting 1000 versus pushing has no effect on what hands push or fold. The guy has 2250 left. He's either playing or he's not.

Raising more preflop might have eliminated some of his range (that you're crushing.) I don't see the point. Raising more also gets you into a range where you're putting 20% of your stack in preflop. It's not like you knew MP2 with 2800 left was calling and everyone else folds when you raised.

That site specific read just seems silly to me.

Barry,

I think your mentality is you're never folding here, which I think is correct. He only has 2250 left, with 1400 in the pot. There's no way you can fold with that overlay. So the question is just how to get the most value out of things.

He has the pot odds to call with all hands down to 40/60.
I can't come up with hands in a reasonable range that put more money in that are worse than 40/60 on this flop.

He's not folding anything that's better than 60/40 against you right now. (Sets, pairs + big flush draws)

The majority of his range is in this middle 40/60 - 60/40 range. You want as much of that to fold as possible. (Note with 1400 in the pot, you push he folds is better than you push he calls as a 40/60 dog.) I'm basically saying there aren't any hands that would put money in that you want to put money in.

So push. Pushing will fold some pairs with no [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] which is great. This is a good portion of his range. You should also fold a few hands that beat you, like AK without diamonds.

4CardStraight · #8 08-03-2007, 03:28 PM

STANDARD!

bigentx · #9 08-03-2007, 04:25 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't like the raise PF, I don;'t think you're protecting your hand enough. I'd make it 700 to go, maybe even 800 because it's AQ and you're so out of position. I don't really even mind taking down the blinds.

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This is really bad. You do realize that by raising bigger all your doing is chasing out hands that you dominated and would have come in before. And if you do this sort of thing regularly with marginal hands like AQ, 99 then this is a huge leak IMO.

Dave D · #10 08-03-2007, 04:45 PM

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I think I disagree with everything Dave said.

Betting 1000 versus pushing has no effect on what hands push or fold. The guy has 2250 left. He's either playing or he's not.

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He might think he has some FE by pushing over the raise. I think you're assuming villian's probably smarter than he is. I'm still calling a push, I just think this has a better chance of getting villian to put in more when he's behind.

Again, pushing isn't "wrong", I just think it's slightly worse. It's a really big overbet and I think it's less likely to get called by a hand that's behind.

[/ QUOTE ]
Raising more preflop might have eliminated some of his range (that you're crushing.) I don't see the point.
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As you say two sentances later, it's not like you knew it was going to be heads up. I don't think the raise is big enough, and risks letting in too many villians. We're out of position with a good, but not great hand. I want to protect it.

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Raising more also gets you into a range where you're putting 20% of your stack in preflop.

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I hadn't noticed this, however this is about where I draw the line with hands like AK/AQ and TT+. 20% in PF is ok but anymore and I just push.

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That site specific read just seems silly to me.

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I think it matters, and there's a reason people post site when they post. Stars players are just different, and in general FTP is softer etc. Site/buy in kinda matters, at least marginally.