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#1
04-30-2007, 05:41 PM
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UFC 71
Thought I'd get some discussion going on this since it's a couple weeks away and there's some early lines up.
Courtesy of betus.com Chuck Liddell -260 Quinton Jackson +200 John Burkman +220 Karo Parisyan -300 I would assume a lot of money is going to go on Liddell as it gets closer to fight time. Anyone think there is value at Rampage at +200? 
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#4
05-01-2007, 12:28 AM
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Re: UFC 71
[ QUOTE ]
I'm kind of surprised that Chuck is such a heavy favorite here. I know nothing but I see a lot more "Rampge is gunna kick Chucks azz" than vice versa out there. [/ QUOTE ] There are plenty of fanbois out there who think that Chuck is invincible. Also, I think some people buy too much into the "Rampage is washed up after getting his ass kicked by Wanderlei and Shogun" angle. While he has certainly had some mediocre fights since then, to count him out like that is silly. I'm still not sure how I feel about this fight. If I knew Rampage was bringing his A game, I'd take him at +200 instantly. FWIW, Randy Couture predicted that Rampage would win, and he indicated that he had seen something in Rampage's training that he liked.
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#5
05-01-2007, 01:38 PM
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Re: UFC 71
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do you have evidence to back this up? all recent trends indicate the contrary [/ QUOTE ] I figure most casual MMA/UFC fans would be betting on Liddell as 1) he's the current face of UFC and 2) Rampage is unknown to people didn't watch Pride.
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#6
05-01-2007, 11:19 PM
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Re: UFC 71
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] do you have evidence to back this up? all recent trends indicate the contrary [/ QUOTE ] I figure most casual MMA/UFC fans would be betting on Liddell as 1) he's the current face of UFC and 2) Rampage is unknown to people didn't watch Pride. [/ QUOTE ] in today's environment after the death of nete4ler and the passing of the internet gambling bill, there simply isn't nearly enough "square" action on the more "populare/known" fighter to counter-balance the large sharp bettors... anyone who paid attention to line movement for the past few UFC events would've saw numerous examples of this. for example, take the werdum/aa fight last ufc card, aa is by far the more known face being pushed by zuffa, (ufc poll was 75% in favour of arlovski), yet when he opened -145 he was quickly bet down to +110 on pinny within a day. another example: clay guida/din thomas, clay was virtually unknown at the time outside of strikeforce, din was featured on tuf extensively, yet when clay opened +180 he was bet up to -125 within 12 hours... anyone who still thinks they can counter-predict the square movement in today's offshore mma environment will usually find themselves late to the lines, and leaving wondering how they could've miscalculated the line movement so badly. also, as of chuck's last 4 title defenses, he was bet down every single time as of fight day. this includes fights w/less known fighters such as babalu and jeremy horn. so history is also not on your side
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#8
05-03-2007, 03:09 PM
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Re: UFC 71
I don't bet anymore, but my calculation tell me to put 2.5u on rampage @ +240.
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#9
05-10-2007, 07:06 PM
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Re: UFC 71
Anything over +180 is value. Who is the last STRIKER Liddell has fought that was this fast and strong? Rampage. Liddell has fought only grapplers, wrestlers, and jiu-jitsu specialists in the last few years in Couture, Ortiz, Horn, and Babalu.
Rampage should give him a run for his money, and will have the best chance of anyone in the last few years of beating him. Chuck seems invincible because no one has matched well with him since his last loss, which was to, uhh, Rampage. There are repors of Chuck having a pulled hammy and stuff during his loss to Rampage, which would explain why he looked awful versus him, but not even a 100% healthy Chuck deserves -260 odds to beat Rampage. Way too high. Both fighers will train hard, barring injuries. It probably won't go over Rampage +240. But the days before the fight, if it gets that high, it'll be pounded back down, guaranteed.
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