Thoughts on Federer vs Nadal?

[1C5]

Fed is at around +200 to win.

He beat him last time they played on clay and both are playing great right now.

Thoughts on Fed at +200 or Nadal at -225?

[bigalt]

I'm not sure if you saw Federer's match against Davydenko? He was very lackluster, especially when he got up to the net he was biffing volleys left and right, and this is a part of his game that will be very integral to beating Nadal in most people's assessment.

Davydenko pretty much choked away the match, playing well for half-sets and then giving away the end of each of the 3.

Federer could very well bounce back and play a great match, but he's definitely not on a steam-roll leading into the finals like he was in the Aussie (actually gonzo was on a similar roll leading into that final too).

I didn't see the other semifinal, I just know that Djokovic looked fantastic in the quarter and got sent home by Nadal.

I realize these aren't the best metrics, but I really can't see Nadal losing this one more than 1 out of 3 times. Hamburg points in his favor but that was a 3-setter, and Nadal can play forever. I'm definitely on Nadal for the 1c limit Pinnacle allows me.

[brett701]

I think that federer had a weak set, but he turned it around and he continued to play full of confidence. I am thinking that federer is going to win. I am about 55-60% sure that federer will take it down.


What do you mean by your last sentence?


Credentials: played college tennis and i play poker for a living.

Im going ot put a post on tenniswarehouse.com on the forums and see if i can get any insite on this match. Hopefully we can make some dollars off of this. Thousands of people view tennis warehouse posts and this may help us out a bit to allow us to conclude easier.

[damatz]

Love Nadal at -200. Federer's victory in Hamburg seems to be more telling of an exhausted Nadal who had played in Rome the week before and was basically coming off two straight weeks of playing. Nadal's superior athleticism pays off on clay, Federer seems unable to hurt Nadal with his offense. Also, Federer seems to have no answer for Nadal's high topspn ball into Federer's backhand corner. Look for Nadal to play that all day. Although Federer is possibly the greatest tennis player of all time, Rafa is certainly the greatest clay-courter of all time. Get ready for a show though, I don't think Federer is going down easy.

[KissDeGirl]

love line on nadal

[4Tay]

What does this wager mean:

Handicap Games
R. Federer +4 Handicap Games -109
R. Nadal -4 Handicap Games -106

So, if Nadal wins 3-1, the wager is a push? If Federer wins 3-1, the +4 Handicap on Federer wins?

[Limpfold]

It's total games in the match, if Nadal wins 6-1 6-4 6-4 the push was at 9 etc etc.

[MCS]

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I am about 55-60% sure that federer will take it down.

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You think the fair line would be like Federer -135, rather than +180? I have a hard time believing the market is off by a trillion percent.

[NajdorfDefense]

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love line on nadal

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