strange tourney structure- Do I have any equity here?

[renodoc]

OK, this is a live MTT. Catch is that at the FT all the tourney chips are converted to real money chips. 75% of the total prize pool is converted, and 25% is withheld for the winner, or for any dealmaking after they get down to 5 players or less. At this point, starting with the smallest stack, each player is asked if they want to take their money and leave the tourney. If they stay, they get the option of leaving every twenty minutes when the blinds go up.

Its a very strange structure.

Let me put some numbers in and ask your collective wisdom if the short stack has any equity toward the 25% that is withheld.

4 players left.
Stacks: $600/$500/$300/$200
Amount withheld: $850
Blinds about to go up to $25/$50

From a pure ICM calc, I think the short stack should get around $100. The catch of course, is that once play starts again, the ss will have to survive another 20 minutes for their chips to be worth anything.

Being the ss, I asked for $150 and was laughed at. I then asked how much the other three would let me have of the $850 in order to take my chips and leave and i was offered ten dollars.

Who is correct here? I'm not sure if I have any equity at all in the withheld portion....

[Dunkman]

Umm with 1/8 of the chips in play you probably have 125-150 equity in the withheld portion. The high blinds make me think it's closer to 150. Obviously staying and playing is the way to go, it's crazy to leave that much money on the table. With 20 minutes, 4 handed, at those blinds, surviving is a problem for everyone, not just you. One double up and you're either CL or very near.

[renodoc]

[ QUOTE ]
Umm with 1/8 of the chips in play you probably have 125-150 equity in the withheld portion. The high blinds make me think it's closer to 150. Obviously staying and playing is the way to go, it's crazy to leave that much money on the table. With 20 minutes, 4 handed, at those blinds, surviving is a problem for everyone, not just you. One double up and you're either CL or very near.

[/ QUOTE ]


The problem is that if I fail to double up, then not only have I lost my equity in the withheld portion, but also the $200 I had in front of me. The CL's know this and thus can apply maximal pressure. This can essentially become a winner take all tourney.

[Dunkman]

If the $200 in front of you is so important that you're willing to give up another $125+ in equity that you have then take it and walk.

[renodoc]

also- this is a $35 + rebuy tourney, and most people are in for $100 total.