NL400 - Fold a set? (seriously)

moldman · #1 05-23-2007, 10:36 AM

No significant reads on villian. Through 15 hands, he's 29/3/0.4 though in case anyone wants to base a decision on that.

I thought this was pretty easy at the time, but given the whole "never fold a set" theme I see around here, I wanted to see the response I got here. If you advocate a call, please tell me what and what I'm ahead of.

No Limit Hold'em Cash Game
$2/$4 Blinds
9 Players
LegoPoker HH Converter

Hero (SB): $671.40
BB: $240.00
UTG: $235.60
UTG+1: $397.50
MP1: $396.15
MP2: $344.65
MP3: $240.60
CO: $336.00
BTN: $457.30

Preflop: Hero is dealt 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (9 Players)
UTG calls $4.00, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO folds, BTN folds, Hero calls $2.00, BB checks

Flop: ($12) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 Players)
Hero bets $8.00, BB folds, UTG calls $8.00

Turn: ($28) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero bets $24.00, UTG calls $24.00

River: ($76) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero bets $60.00, UTG raises to $140.00, Hero folds

junkmail3 · #2 05-23-2007, 10:48 AM

I usually make it 10-12 on the flop.
Turn looks good.

You have to call the river because you have odds. You only have to be right about 25-30% of the time here.

It kind of looks like he could have a flush draw, but he could easily have T9s or something like that. Certainly not out of his range.

If he raised more than a min raise I think you could fold.

So, to answer your specific question, you beat T9s and as well as several bluffs. It's tough to say if you're right often enough though, that raise looks like it's for value. I don't know, that raise is too small for me to fold to though.

raistlinx · #3 05-23-2007, 10:48 AM

You are ahead of a bluff and that's about it. 3.5-1 is not enough to call given how strong you played your hand. Well played.

Mr_Donktastic · #4 05-23-2007, 11:03 AM

UGH - bad spot, what a terrible river.

This looks like a good river for bet/fold. Pretty much nobody is raising your bet with something you beat on a board with a 4 str8 and a 3 flush...but many hands will make a crying call.

HOWEVER - in this particular case I may have opted for a check/call. The reason is that the villian is relatively unknown but has been playing donkish so far. So I would give up some value (bet/fold has >>> value then checking) to get to showdown.

junkmail3 · #5 05-23-2007, 11:05 AM

[ QUOTE ]

HOWEVER - in this particular case I may have opted for a check/call. The reason is that the villian is relatively unknown but has been playing donkish so far. So I would give up some value (bet/fold has >>> value then checking) to get to showdown.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like this.

moldman · #6 05-23-2007, 11:13 AM

I thought about a check/call here, but I just can't for the life of me imagine being raised by anything I'm beating here and figured as an unknown, he could call with a wide range of stuff I could be beating. But, absolutely everything in the world got there, and even if he flopped a set (888) and played it unbelievably bad, I'm still beat.

Also, another thought I had about this hand... is there any value in betting a little less on the river, or is that going to induce too many bluff raises (ie $40-50)? I know that on a board as coordinated as this, I'll often interpret an underbet as a thin value bet considering there can't be much he's bluffing with that missed. Thoughts?

Gordon Scott · #7 05-23-2007, 11:15 AM

[ QUOTE ]

HOWEVER - in this particular case I may have opted for a check/call. The reason is that the villian is relatively unknown but has been playing donkish so far. So I would give up some value (bet/fold has >>> value then checking) to get to showdown.

[/ QUOTE ]

With no read I don't hate this line.

I know some will say it looks weak but by checking you induse a hand we beat (like kings up) to bet. That same hand we beat may also be waiting to bluff or simibluff raise the any river scare card.

GS

King Spew · #8 05-23-2007, 11:15 AM

C/C river.... I'd like to get to showdown cheaply.

drj003 · #9 05-23-2007, 11:17 AM

He probably got there, good fold.

Mr_Donktastic · #10 05-23-2007, 11:17 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I thought about a check/call here, but I just can't for the life of me imagine being raised by anything I'm beating here and figured as an unknown, he could call with a wide range of stuff I could be beating. But, absolutely everything in the world got there, and even if he flopped a set (888) and played it unbelievably bad, I'm still beat.

Also, another thought I had about this hand... is there any value in betting a little less on the river, or is that going to induce too many bluff raises (ie $40-50)? I know that on a board as coordinated as this, I'll often interpret an underbet as a thin value bet considering there can't be much he's bluffing with that missed. Thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

If you decide to bet/fold I would just bet the amount that you think reasonable hands that you beat will call. Don't worry about 'saving' that $20 or w/e if you get raised...

Also it could be misconstrued as a blocking bet and people may bluff raise you - rare but it could happen.