Pot equity

[Carlson411]

Im trying hard to be more of a complete beginner to make it to the intermediate part of poker. I know I play very well, but I'm really trying hard to improve my game by understanding the math and about equity edge. I understand the percentages are coming from the probability that the hand will win x the pot. However, since we cannot see our opponents cards unless we cheat how are we to determine our edge over our opponent in regards to equity and there hand? Are we assuming what they have by reading the way they play? I'm going to review the pot equity edge section again in SSH, but for some reason its not clicking for me. I want to apply it in the game. Can somebody give me an example of pot equity edge? Basically simplify and show me how you would use it in a hand. Aaron or Devil?

[T50_Omaha8]

Since I assume you're talking about hold'em, I'll stick to that. For other games, particularly split pot games, the concept is much more difficult (and important).

The classic example of pot equity is with an all-or-nothing draw, such as a flush draw or OESD. There, you have right around 33% pot equity on the flop and 20% pot equity on the turn. When you call a bet, you can consider the question, "Is my pot equity larger than the amount I have to call," AFTER you have added the amount you need to call.

For example, say you have 20% pot equity on the turn with a NFD. The pot is $65 and your opponent bets his last $20. You add in your call for total pot size and do the math:

$65 + $20 + $20 = $105
$105*20% = $21

Hence you earn E$1 by calling. This, you may realize, is synonymous to pot odds.

The question becomes more difficult when you consider hand ranges. $100NL -- Let's say you have 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] on the button and a very aggressive, tricky villian raises from the cutoff. He raises the top 20% of hands, but folds almost every time you 3-bet him. If he calls, you can assume he has AQ+ or TT+. To your dismay, villian calls. After his call, the pot is $40, half his and half yours. Effective stacks were pretty deep at $200 preflop, with $180 remaining behind on the flop.

The flop comes 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Villian pushes. Well, villian probably has that overpair. What's your equity? You go run a simulation against AA and are pleased to find you're only a 48/52 dog--48% pot equity is enough to call any bet. You can calculate exactly how much it would cost for villian to push you off your hand:

.48(40+2X)<X
19.2+.96X<X
16<.04X
16/.04<X
400<X

Based on your pot equity against villian's range, he would have to bet over $400 to push you off the hand. The fact he pushes AK to be tricky sometimes makes this even more of a call.

What it comes down to is equity vs you opponents range of possible holdings. Since you dont have time to run simulations, you have to think on your feet and get a feel for equity vs various different holdings, then consider how likely it is villian has each of those holdings based on his play earlier in the hand.

[Carlson411]

Thanks. T50. I still have to read up on it, but the reasoning is starting to develop in my brain.