Overestimating implied odds and me.

[NL__Fool]

I think recently I have been overstimating my implied odds.

It's raised Preflop, You call. You have a flush draw on the flop.

Assuming 100 bb stacks, how good do your implied odds need to be for you to continue chasing? If it's 3:1 to you do you still call? How about 2.5:1?

Where do you draw the line? How many of us overstimate our implied odds?

Assume villain is an unknown. NL100, 100 BB stacks. Villain raises Pre flop and it's heads up on the flop Pot is $8.

Flop is J27 2 spades and you are holding K10 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Villain cont bets $6 and you call, Pot is now $20.
Turn is a 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Villain cont bets $15, Pot is $35 and you are getting 2.3:1
Do you call or fold? You need to make $30 more on the river in what will be a $60 pot for this call to be slightly +EV

What about if villain bets $11 on the turn? You are getting 2.8:1 on your call and you need to make $15 more on the river in what would be a $42 pot. Do you make the call?

Does your calling standards change at all if villain is a known nit or a fish but you do not know if he will stack off?

[CaptVimes]

I think the ability to get paid off, especially with flushes, really needs to be considered when chasing a draw. Especially when your counting on implied odds. In your example your getting 2.8:1 on your turn call. You need the villain to contribute another 18.70 to the pot for this to just break even if your flush hits. A nit just isn't going to do that for you.

[raistlinx]

I am much more willing to call the flop getting less than the right price than I am on the turn since obviously you have only 1 street left to get the money in.

I'll usually take 3-1 on the flop.

[RED FACE]

I think calling is the worst option. This is a raise or fold but there are many variables when making that decision...
1)Is your image so aggressive or bluffy that you can't bluff him off an overpair?
2)Is he so loose that you can't bluff him off an overpair?
3)How often is he firing a second barrel here w just A high?
4)How often is he continuing to bet into a draw w AQspades?
5)How often are your K outs good.
etc.

I'm assuming you are inposition and maybe posted in the CO as calling a 4bb pfr w KTs is too loose imo but possibly read dependant.

His hand looks most like JJ-AA. I don't think you have any implied odds vs QQ-AA. Maybe some if he holds AsAx.