It's a Free Card, It's a Trey, It's *pukes*!

ProfessorBen · #1 05-11-2007, 07:27 AM

Bay 101 20/40 9 players
I'm interested in the river decision.

BB is the 3rd worst player in the game next to the players mentioned below. A standard loose/passive.
UTG is a loose/passive, and the second worst player at the table. He has gone on tilt the last few hands after an over pair was beaten by something like T2s and is getting aggressive postflop though he normally is passive. Only worse than him is UTG+2 who is looser/more passive and will generally chase his single over and pay off with almost any pair.
UTG+1 is a solid TAG player though I've seen him get out of line in a few shorthanded spots.
HJ is shortstacked and an OK player. He is too loose to be a TAG, but generally makes good decisions postflop.

Hero in CO holds 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Preflop: UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, 2 folds, HJ raises, Hero calls, 2 folds, BB calls, All call.

Flop: 5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
BB checks, UTG check, UTG+1 checks, HJ bets, Hero calls, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 raises, HJ raises 1 more chip all in, Hero calls, All call.

Turn: J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Checked around.

River: 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
BB bets, UTG raises, UTG+1 3-towns, Hero...

rafiki · #2 05-11-2007, 10:09 AM

You know what, I was going to tell you to fold and say you were silly for even asking. Then I changed my mind.

How many people think UTG+1 has A2s or 67s ? Has the table been passive enough for him to want to limp those hands ? Because I can really only put him on:

44, A2s, 67s, and you tie one of those, you beat one of those, and one of those beats you. I think we know that one of the fish is playing a naked 5 like the nuts.

I dunno, I'm really leaning towards a call, perhaps incorrectly. Glad I thought about this more.

cgrohman · #3 05-11-2007, 10:22 AM

I usally just odl this pre-flop but calling is fine. I think raising the flop would have made this hand a lot easier to play.

rafiki · #4 05-11-2007, 10:56 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I usally just odl this pre-flop but calling is fine. I think raising the flop would have made this hand a lot easier to play.

[/ QUOTE ]

Really ? I'm not disagreeing exactly, but do you raise straight draws on a paired board with a flush draw, and find the play is +EV ? I don't have any evidence to say it's not, but it's something I never do right now...

cgrohman · #5 05-11-2007, 11:34 AM

In this situation I would

AragornX151 · #6 05-11-2007, 11:54 AM

Ugly spot. I'd wager the raiser has A2s. The bettor could have a fairly wide range. For a tight player to 3-bet there, though...I feel like 67 is the bottom of his range, so you're calling 3-cold for a chop at BEST 99% of the time. If the pot was much larger, I'd say you have to call, but with the turn checked around, the pot odds aren't really that incredible for calling 120 here. Let it go.

rafiki · #7 05-11-2007, 12:34 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Ugly spot. I'd wager the raiser has A2s. The bettor could have a fairly wide range. For a tight player to 3-bet there, though...I feel like 67 is the bottom of his range, so you're calling 3-cold for a chop at BEST 99% of the time. If the pot was much larger, I'd say you have to call, but with the turn checked around, the pot odds aren't really that incredible for calling 120 here. Let it go.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really have no issue with the let it go theory, since it was my first impulse. But I'm curious about the hand ranges you feel are beating us, and what they are (and who holds them). Just reverse engineering it is fun.

AragornX151 · #8 05-11-2007, 01:56 PM

UTG+1 limped in and was labeled very solid by OP, so 44 and 55 seems like the most likely scenarios, followed by 76s and A2s. The other two guys COULD have those hands plus wider ranges of A2, 54, hell, even J5s if they both suck. One of them could even have "hit" with 33. JJ seems unlikely.

I think that given the amount of strength shown here before it's even your turn to act, you really need to be sure that (1) UTG+1 is capable of 3-betting with a worse hand here, and (2) that the first two players seem unlikely to cap. When coupled with the fact that ZERO big bets went in on the turn, helping keep the pot odds from going ballistic, I think this is a muck.

rafiki · #9 05-11-2007, 02:03 PM

[ QUOTE ]
UTG+1 limped in and was labeled very solid by OP, so 44 and 55 seems like the most likely scenarios, followed by 76s and A2s. The other two guys COULD have those hands plus wider ranges of A2, 54, hell, even J5s if they both suck. One of them could even have "hit" with 33. JJ seems unlikely.

I think that given the amount of strength shown here before it's even your turn to act, you really need to be sure that (1) UTG+1 is capable of 3-betting with a worse hand here, and (2) that the first two players seem unlikely to cap. When coupled with the fact that ZERO big bets went in on the turn, helping keep the pot odds from going ballistic, I think this is a muck.

[/ QUOTE ]

but you think he cr raises the flop with a boat or quads, then the turn goes check all around. Is he really trying to check raise twice ? heh I guess he could. Just a weird line. And I wonder if 3betting there is right vs all the overcall bets.

AragornX151 · #10 05-11-2007, 02:26 PM

It IS a weird line, for sure, but it's also very strange river action given the previous streets. I'd love the flop c/r with quads or a boat, but going for a c/r again on the turn is too frisky for my money...too many hands call the turn but not the river, and you can't risk it. I don't have any real qualms with calling here, but I think it's probably -ev long-term. A 3-bet on the river is really, really strong in these games, and I just think you're beat by someone most of the time here.