Gasp! KK playalong???

[Aaron W.]

Let's see how this one holds up... Lots of interesting postflop decisions!

PokerStars 1/2 Hold'em (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, MP calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, SB calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, UTG calls, MP calls, <font color="#CC3333">Button caps</font>, SB calls, Hero calls, UTG calls, MP calls.

Flop: (20 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero...

Big big pot, 5 players, monotone board, bad bad bad position...

[Jaran]

My initial reaction (what I would prolly do at the table) is to raise. However, I am going to think about it some, and reserve the right (because, really, short of banning, who is gonna stop me?) to change my vote.

-J

[bozlax]

Any reads?

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
Any reads?

[/ QUOTE ]

Nothing useful. The preflop capper seems pretty sane and I don't have anything on SB. I don't remember anything about the other two players, which means they're probably loose of moderate aggression.

[Bubble Bully]

[EDIT]

I'm convinced by the posters below to fold pre-flop.

[Xhad]

Call. You have no fold equity and valueraise is questionable with 3 players behind you. SB's donk into two PFR's is perturbing, but it's the nut draw or a T often enough for us to stick around in this 20SB pot...for now.

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
Hopefully get it heads up.

[/ QUOTE ]

Uh, with who? The guy that capped preflop that has position on us, or the guy that has a likely flush that we have postition on?

I'm with Xhad...call and see what happens. If Button raises and SB 3-bets, put your knees in the breeze, count to ten and pull the cord.

[giggles like a schoolgirl] I can't wait to see the K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] on the turn. [/giggle]

[tyler_cracker]

xhad nailed it (of course). i'm calling now to evaluate the action behind me and (hopefully) the turn card.

[Guruman]

sb had ok odds to see the flop even with a coldcall pf. He probably should be taking a look with an two suited that are 9 or taller, and 55-99 (smaller can fold, bigger should threeball). I'd say he can have a relatively wide range pf, but mostly of hands that bank up on implied odds given the first coldcall. He could also be a lunatic, but I didnt get any reads from you. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

sb bet into the field in a huge pot with a threeballer and capper yet to act. so since its not a pure bluff its either a flush, a T, an overpair, or a big flush draw that may also have a straight draw of some kind to go with.

On balance then I'd estimate that you're probably close to even in or at a small defecit in equity with sb's range, and pretty far ahead of button's non [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] range.

the way to break these situations down is to ask:
1)what are my opponent's ranges?
2)what do I want them to do?
3)what are the chances of me getting them to do that?

you're likely either waay ahead or only sligthly ahead of sb depending on his drawing status. You're also likely ahead of button, but he's also likely to put in a lot of action on this flop if he's got a T or an overpair.

If sb is in a high-equity situation you want to wait for a safe turn card to start putting lots of bets in. If he's weak and is playing to protect against opposition flush draws, you want to put lots of bets in on this street instead.

If button has a [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] you want lots of bets in on this street. If he doesnt it doesnt matter.

If both guys have diamond draws you want to wait for the turn.

If neither does you want action now.

There's also the guys in the middle: if you call they'll call with any diamond and any other piece. if you raise you may fold out super small diamonds and some gutshots and whatnot that could have otherwise drawn profitably.

I feel like I'm going in circles. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Here's what I think:

You'd probably like to wait for the turn given the likelyhood that sb is in a good equity position, and the less likely possibility that bb is in one as well. It seems unlikely that the bb is going to fold here, but it would be a huge disaster if you called, utg and mp called, and then button raised. This is also a highly likely situation given that he should be raising there with any overpair and any diamond.

The best situation would be if sb had a T, you raised, and got headsup. This is much less likely but also much more lucrative given the size of the pot. Buying a fold from any of the players behind you also ruins any pot-building equity play he could be making.

On balance I think the combination of
-pot size
-unlikelyhood of seeing a cheap turn
-hand strength
-sb range

warrant a raise to at least attempt a little protection.

[bozlax]

Guru, this is a great analysis save two things: one, given the preflop action and board, your opponents are going to have to put you on specifically A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] for you to get them to fold, and, two, you need, I'm guessing, two people to fold to make raising right.