NLTRN Early Bluff

[quinn]

Unknown villain
second hand
$50 FTP non-turbo

Hero has 1,480
Villain has 1,520

Hero dealt Ah 4c
Hero raises to 60
Villain calls 40

Flop 2s 6c 4d (pot 120)
Villain checks
Hero bets 90
Villain calls

Turn Td (pot 300)
Villain bets 180
Hero raises to 420

[Austiger]

You call this a bluff? I'd say you have the best hand often here. I don't like the raise though since it's the first hand. I'd like to have a read on what that turn bet means.

[bluffbetter]

I think he likely has either A10, an overpair, a set or AK/Q/J flush draw. I don't think this is a good bluff, his check call on the flop followed by turn bet OOP looks strong.
Maybe he could also have called the PFR with A6 suited, in which case he could fold unless he has the flush draw too.

I think if you are going to bluff here you need to make it about 550 so a flush draw doesn't have odds to call, because at the moment you are giving him 21.05% odds and this is enough if he think you will call a bet on the river.

[Conspiracy]

wow, this is really ugly.