Stars $5/$10 Hand Against 2+2er. Bad Turn Check?

[Utah]

Stars $5/$10 6 handed.

Villian is 2+2 poster chezlaw. I haven't played a lot with him (maybe a couple hundred hands at most) but he seems to be a very strong player.

UTG+1 raises
Chezlaw 3-bets. His range here is probably 88-AA or AK-A10.
I 4 bet on the button and I have K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Both call

Flop is a pretty 10[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

First player checks. Chezlaw bets. I Raise. First player folds. Chezlaw calls.

Turn is J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Chezlaw checks. And I check.

Do you like the turn check?

[Befolder]

Prequel: Something that might widen Chezlaw's range is his knowledge of UTG1. If he knows him to be a very loose opener, he could 3 bet trying to isolate w/ many more hands than you have him on.

I hate the turn check. Seems like you're using an NL pot control strategy here given the range you've given Chez. Sure, you don't like AA, JJ, or TT, but you're still ahead of AJ, AT and QQ among other hands which your range might not include.

The only merit I can see in the check is to get paid off on the river if he gets something there or now feels you missed. He may have c/f'd the turn, but now you've got him suspicious.

What was your thinking w/ the check?

[lamboruns]

i think there is no merit to checking the turn....if he is a strong player he wont call riv without at least 2 pr

[Utah]

[ QUOTE ]
Prequel: Something that might widen Chezlaw's range is his knowledge of UTG1. If he knows him to be a very loose opener, he could 3 bet trying to isolate w/ many more hands than you have him on.

I hate the turn check. Seems like you're using an NL pot control strategy here given the range you've given Chez. Sure, you don't like AA, JJ, or TT, but you're still ahead of AJ, AT and QQ among other hands which your range might not include.

The only merit I can see in the check is to get paid off on the river if he gets something there or now feels you missed. He may have c/f'd the turn, but now you've got him suspicious.

What was your thinking w/ the check?

[/ QUOTE ]UTG+1 seemed pretty tight as far as raising was concerned. It certainly didn't see chezlaw was raising because UTG+1 raises too much.

My thinking at the table was that I am very likely ahead and I don't fear many river cards. For a lot of hands, I am likely to get 1 bet from him on the turn or on the river. It am way behind I lose one less bet with a check.

Hands I think he is least likely to have:
88 - giving him free draw to 6 outer
99 - giving him free draw to 6 outer
AK - giving him free draw to 3 outer but get extra bet when case K comes
QQ - likely lose one bet

Hands he is likely to have
AA - I save some money here but not sure how much depending on his play
AQ - Giving him free 4 outer
JJ - Save myself 2 bets
10,10 - Save myself 2 bets
A,J - Lose one bet

Also, I played this hand for deception purposes. I wanted chezlaw to know that I will check behind good cards and that in these situations it doesnt mean that I have AK. This causes him to take less shots at me on the river when I check the turn with weak or marginal holdings.

[Utah]

[ QUOTE ]
i think there is no merit to checking the turn....if he is a strong player he wont call riv without at least 2 pr

[/ QUOTE ]

He has to call river with a hand like 88 or 99, especially if a blank hits the river. The odds that I have AK or AQ dictate that he does. So, I likely get a bet from him either way.

[steakhouse]

Seems like you're trying to outsmart yourself into some heavy FPS spew.

[anotherFliplost]

I think AKo, AQs+, QQ still make up a significant amount of his range, along with the hands you hate to see (AA, JJ, TT). For that reason, I don't like the turn check, though I suspect it did save you two bets (just from the fact this hand got posted).

[Utah]

[ QUOTE ]
I think AKo, AQs+, QQ still make up a significant amount of his range, along with the hands you hate to see (AA, JJ, TT). For that reason, I don't like the turn check, though I suspect it did save you two bets (just from the fact this hand got posted).

[/ QUOTE ]

River blanks. He checks. I bet. He calls. He has 8,8 and I win. My check ended up netting me the same amount as betting the turn as he would have likely called his 6 outer and c/f the river.

[James.]

if this is 6 max he should probably be 3betting as low as 66, KJs, KQo, ATs, and AJo here. i know i probably would.

based on that, you are over a 3-1 favorite on the turn. of the hands you beat, over 48% of them have redraws that can profitably call a bet. given the size of the pot(8bb), letting him draw for free(even to the 3outers like AQ/AK which is another 24 combos)is a catastrophe waiting to happen, IMO.

if you want to make a move like this, do it in a smaller pot. that way it won't be so expensive.

you're sacrificing more than value by doing this; you're sacrificing a big pot some decent portion of the time. don't donate a pot this size for metagame. it simply isn't worth it.

[James.]

[ QUOTE ]
My check ended up netting me the same amount as betting the turn as he would have likely called his 6 outer and c/f the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

that's assuming he doesn't payoff with other pocket pairs or Ahigh. i think he indeed does a reasonable amount of the time. if not, you need to increase your bluffing frequency.