aba the god is wrong. sn the human is right.

[SilentNoise]

aba says in one of his videos "floating out of position is generally a losing play". I want to know why. I disagree. I think floating is a more profitable bluff since you are risking less to get the information of whether or not villain is likely to have a hand. If you get the more thnan likely reliable information that he doesn't have a hand you can fire on a later street. Otherwise you can get out without having to invest a big checkraise amount or big bluff raise. I dont want to just agree with aba because he said it. I want to understand it myself.


Bla bla bla...i typed this up and its all pointless, nobody will read it anyway. just ignore this unless you are bored.
..................
Been thinking about some general strategy stuff recently, and will for the last 3-4 days of holiday instead of playing. Gonna finally get round to doing EV calcs of good boards to c/r push or push in 3bet pots and stuff which i stupidly haven't bothered working out any maths for in the past. Not doing much maths at university, so might aswell do some poker-related maths i guess.

Anyway, i started thinking about this after i was rewatching some of aba's cardrunners videos. To quote him he said "floating out of position is generally a losing play". I dont really agree with him at all to be honest and i wanna explain why and am wondering if i am wrong on this. hopefully can get some clarification of why it is infact a bad play.

I haven't really thought about this post much in advance because i couldn't be bothered but ill just make a general example up on the spot.

Lets say you are running at 25/20 with a 35% att to steal. BB is running at 25/20 (does this tell you ANYTHING about is propensity to 3bet by the way? ive always assumed it did because the numbers are closer together...that right?)


In position
===========

100BB stacks. 6 handed.
UTG folds
MP folds
Hero raises to 4BB with 78s
BTN folds
SB folds
BB reraises to 16BB
Hero calls 12BB


Flop: J52r (Pot size = 33BB)
BB bets 20BB
Hero calls 20BB

Turn: 2d
BB checks
Hero pushes all in
BB folds

For the sake of simplification, lets assume villan doesn't ever double barrel. Obviously this isn't the case, but it is definately true that villain gives up on the turn more than he carries on bluffing for his whole stack. In this example Hero only has to risk 20BB in order to win the pot (assuming pushing the turn is risk free since villain never has a hand...this is another simplification of the truth..but i think it is fair to say that villain more often DOESNT have a hand than DOES have a hand and is checking to induce a bluff - this is true because hes 3betting light).

If Hero pushes all in in over villan's cbet on the flop instead, Hero has to risk his remaining 75BB or so. If hes right he gets a fold. If hes wrong and villan has AA and snap calls, hes lost 75BB.

So it seems fairly logical that floating is a cheaper way of winning this pot right? You are risking less for the same result. When villan has a hand Hero can find out for 20BB instead of Hero's whole stack...and forgetting the assumptions ...most of the time villan wont have a hand.

This logic should apply without these assumptios since even though villan might be trapping on the turn...most of the time he IS NOT.


Out of position
================
Anyway, I dont see why the converse for being out of position isn't true. There is one major flaw with this though, you are giving villan effectively 2 free cards to improve to a hand that is good enough to call a push with. lets assume again that if villan has a hand, he bets the turn again, and if he doesnt he checks behind the turn.

100BB stacks. 6 handed.
UTG folds
MP folds
CO raises to 4BB
BTN folds
SB folds
Hero calls 3BB with 66 (yea i know its probably better to 3bet here but whatever)


Flop: K59r (Pot size = 9BB)
Hero checks
CO bets 6BB
Hero calls 6BB

Turn: 2d (Pot size = 21BB)
Hero checks
CO checks

River: 3c
Hero bets 17BB
CO folds

As in this example, its safe to assume that the MAJORITY of the time villan is going to give up on the turn unimproved. Yes he might double barrel sometimes but all the times he doesn't should take account for this I think?

Yes you could checkraise on th flop to like 20$, and deny villain the opportunity to see two more cards...but since its a K high flop, if he has a hand like QJ, even if he gets his free Q/J on the turn/river, hes still going to be weary of calling a river bet with these hands...so why does it matter if you are giving these free cards or not. He may also have another medium pocket pair, and most of the time he isn't going to hit his 2outer so he feels safe about his hand, so most of the time the river bet will work.

Whats the use in checkraising in these situations when you can just c/c and since villain is usually giving up on the turn ..that way you are only risking the amount you call on the flop, instead of risking the amount you normally checkraise to.

Obviously aba is god. and i am wrong, floating out of position must be a losing play because he said it is. but i want like to hear some justification of why that is the case. i refuse to blindly accept it because the pokergod say so. If i am convinced otherwise then fine...but i want reasons.
....................end bla bla bla




Thanks for explaining why i am wrong in advance.

[SilentNoise]

dumb question i guess? or posts without hand histories are stupid? should probably post in poker theory.

[Jay Riall]

You get called by TT+, 9x very often in your oop hand on the river. Also villains double barrel a fair bit here/already have a better hand/can easiy improve to a better one. It's a bad play.

[ikestoys]

lol tldr; not to be mean... but the obv adjustment for the villain is to double barrel the [censored] out of you, which is exactly what I'd do

[meleader2]

[ QUOTE ]
dumb question i guess? or posts without hand histories are stupid? should probably post in poker theory.

[/ QUOTE ]

assuming same villain, he's calling this river in the OOP example more often than not cuz of turn action.

[SilentNoise]

yea you are right.. wasnt thinking straight at the time. but then again why would you get called down so light in the second example? what do you expect villain to put you on?

[Jay Riall]

[ QUOTE ]
yea you are right.. wasnt thinking straight at the time. but then again why would you get called down so light in the second example? what do you expect villain to put you on?

[/ QUOTE ]

Who cares what he puts you on. He calls most hands I mentioned anyway.

[SilentNoise]

yea i suppose so. i wasn't really thinking straight at the time.. its way more powerful in position definately. i never really did it because i heard aba say dont. but when i thought about it recently i thought it sometimes makes sense. but after a bit more thought...it doesn't. lol

[Panthro]

I don't get the river bet in your OOP example. Both c/r and c/f (and maybe even c/c if he's retarted bluffy) are better plays than b/f'ing the river IMO.

And after he checked the turn, he probably snapcalls your river bet with alot of weakish hands that have you beat.

[SilentNoise]

ignore this thread. i was intoxicated when i wrote it. and i think the example is 7 high so i have nothn