fold to small river raise getting great odds?

[Irishman07]

Villain is 48/5/1.3. Does he have air or a lesser hand here ever?

Full Tilt Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (5 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

UTG ($420.45)
MP ($230.75)
Button ($85.10)
<font color="#C00000">Hero ($242.45)</font>
<font color="#C00000">BB ($108.10)</font>

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $6</font>, BB calls $4.

Flop: ($12) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $8</font>, BB calls $8.

Turn: ($28) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $16</font>, BB calls $16.

River: ($60) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $40</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $78.1 (All-In)</font>, Hero...

Final Pot: $216.20

[CazicT]

You have to win approx. 1 time in 5 or more. Seems close, but I think you might be able to get away from this. He probably has an overpair so his two pair beats yours. If you call and lose I wouldn't feel to bad about it, but I think it's foldable.

His aggression factor is 1.3 right? This is not aggro by any stretch correct? Was this with an adequate sample?

Edit: Maybe i'll change my answer. It's possible he has like A9 or something so his 9's and 3's lose to your 9's and 8's. The odds seem to sweet to pass up.

[Irishman07]

I only had around 35 hands on villain, but he definitely seemed pretty loose/passive. With that aggro factor it doesn't seem like he would be pushing A9 on river right?

[CazicT]

Well I don't think he would push a huge amount, but he might have called to the river and then found out he didn't have alot left so he decided to push it all-in since he had top pair.

I don't believe he is bluffing, so most of the time you call the river you will lose since there isn't much you beat other than a bluff. A9 or possibly T9 or if he happened to call the preflop raise with some other 9 are the only hands that seem possible at this point.

Are there enough of these hands to justify calling? I don't know it's pretty close, but i'd hate to have bet every street, then fold to a small raise on the river and then find out that he only had 9's and 3's.