Fantasy value - this year vs future years

Kneel B4 Zod · #1 04-24-2007, 08:03 PM

sorry for another fantasy thread, but this question is a bit different - measuring performance this year vs keeper values/perfomane for next year

I've been offered Corey Hart ($1) and Anthony Reyes ($3) for Cole Hamels ($16). this is in a 7x5 league with $3 yearly inflation - I could sign Hart for $4 next year and $7 the year after, for example. I can keep as many guys as I want.

I would replace Hamels with Reyes, and Hart would take the place of Felix Pie, Shane Victorino, or Chris Reitsma, either on my bench or as a often used DH.

if this a good balance of "what's good for me now" vs "what's good for me in 2007/8"? fwiw, I don't think my team is good enough to win my league this year, but I want to stay competitive and am not willing to take a big hit for this year just to be in good position for next.

earlier today I traded Bill Hall ($17) and Joe Crede ($12) for Adrian Beltre ($17) and Stephen Drew ($6) which many in my league took as me quitting...so I'm a bit gun shy.

tx

slothinator · #2 04-24-2007, 08:17 PM

Hall/Crede for Beltre/Drew isn't a bad deal, especially if you don't think you are going to win this year. That trade will look really good for you in a year or two.

As for Hart/Reyes for Hamels, I wouldn't do it. Hamels looks like a sure fire #1. Reyes looks the next Javier Vazquez (great stuff, lots of K's, high ERA). Hart should at least be a 20/20 player in his prime - a right handed Steve Finley maybe? If you can get the other guy to upgrade either Reyes or Hart, then it becomes a good deal. As it is, I would pass.

Kneel B4 Zod · #3 04-25-2007, 08:42 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Hall/Crede for Beltre/Drew isn't a bad deal, especially if you don't think you are going to win this year. That trade will look really good for you in a year or two.

As for Hart/Reyes for Hamels, I wouldn't do it. Hamels looks like a sure fire #1. Reyes looks the next Javier Vazquez (great stuff, lots of K's, high ERA). Hart should at least be a 20/20 player in his prime - a right handed Steve Finley maybe? If you can get the other guy to upgrade either Reyes or Hart, then it becomes a good deal. As it is, I would pass.

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tx. your question kind of goes back to my original question though, of valuing potential vs this year. would I rather have Freddy Sanchez for $15 or Hart for $1? he has other guys like Holliday and Beltran, but I couldn't get them for Hamels.

CieloAzor · #4 04-25-2007, 03:32 PM

I would think Hamels is gold in a keeper league. I wouldn't make that trade for now or for later.

Kneel B4 Zod · #5 04-25-2007, 04:01 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I would think Hamels is gold in a keeper league. I wouldn't make that trade for now or for later.

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you need to consider that I would need to pay him $19 next year, and $22 for the year after. his "open market" price next year isn't likely to be much higher than that. (other top SP in our draft this year was Jake Peavy for $27 , Haren for $20, Sheets for $26, Schilling for $19, Bonderman for $24, etc).

Hamels at $19 next year will probably be a good, but not fantastic deal. Hart for $4 and Reyer for $5 next year could be fantastic deals. The money I save having quality guys at those 2 spots (instead of say Mike Cameron at $15 and Smoltz at $16) could enable me to spend more on my other open spots.

KurtSF · #6 04-25-2007, 06:04 PM

I have 180ed on Reyes this year.

(1) He hasn't shown anything in the majors yet. His minor league stats translate to a PHENOMENAL ML pitcher, but outing after outing he underpreforms, and I think the sample size is getting to the point where you can't blame it on bad luck.

(2) I've talked to some Cardinals fans who think Duncan has complete messed him up. He's got a sick 4-seamer that is his out pitch. Duncan won't let him throw it in the bigs, insisting that he needs to use his two-seamer agaisnt major leaguers. And also that Duncan has him "pitching to contact", which is all when and good for most pitchers out there, especially with a good defense behind them, but for "special" pitchers, those high K guys (like Reyes has proved to be in the minors) that don't need a supporting cast to put in a good showing, this will turn their good stuff into mediocre stuff instantly.

I wouldn't count on anything from Reyes in the bigs, at least until he's out of the Cardinal organization. $0.02

rwperu34 · #7 04-25-2007, 06:13 PM

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Hall/Crede for Beltre/Drew isn't a bad deal, especially if you don't think you are going to win this year. That trade will look really good for you in a month or two.

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP

As for the original question, I personally like the deal. With the variance and injury risk to pitchers, it's not that far fetched that Reyes comes close or even outproduces Hammels at some point during the next 2+ years. Hart has a chance to be a great fantasy player and is probably worth more than Hammels right now in a 7x5 format. You've got the roster space with dead spots Reitsma and Victorino, so that's not an issue. The only thing that would keep me from making the deal is if I thought I could get something better than Hart and a very good young pitcher.

slothinator · #8 04-25-2007, 06:17 PM

While I'll agree with you that Reitsma is definitely a dead spot, Victorino is not. 30 steals with .280 BA, and hitting in front of Utley and Howard, makes for a pretty solid fantasy OFer.

Kneel B4 Zod · #9 04-25-2007, 06:28 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Hall/Crede for Beltre/Drew isn't a bad deal, especially if you don't think you are going to win this year. That trade will look really good for you in a month or two.

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP

As for the original question, I personally like the deal. With the variance and injury risk to pitchers, it's not that far fetched that Reyes comes close or even outproduces Hammels at some point during the next 2+ years. Hart has a chance to be a great fantasy player and is probably worth more than Hammels right now in a 7x5 format. You've got the roster space with dead spots Reitsma and Victorino, so that's not an issue. The only thing that would keep me from making the deal is if I thought I could get something better than Hart and a very good young pitcher.

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thanks for the thoughts guys.

Reitsma does suck, but I just managed to trade an injured Daniel Johnson for Lincecum, so I dropped Reitsma.

my bench is now:

Chris Burke ($1)
2/3 from Brian Giles ($15), Felix Pie ($6), and Victorino ($7)
Ryan Shealy ($1)
Tim Lincecum ($6)
Zach Duke ($5)

Duke is my only backup SP, but I have Carpenter on the DL. he would go if/when Carpenter comes back.

so doing this deal would require me to release Pie, who I like but Hart would take his place and then some.

James282 · #10 04-25-2007, 06:50 PM

A lot of Pie's value comes from being a plus fielding CF - pretty decent eye and good doubles power. Pecota projects him to be a 20hr/15 steals in the upcoming years while batting .290 or so. Depending on your rules, it's likely that his walk abilities and the fact that he is a CF is meaningless and it's more cost-efficient to get guys who are high on stats but low on reputation; Hart exactly fits this bill as you have noted. Hart and Pie will likely have something like the exact same fantasy value in the next few years(hart might have more), but Pie will get a lot more acclaim because he is a very good CF and will be doing so in Wrigley. Don't sweat giving Pie away.

James