Is it ok to commit 100BB with middle set OOP on a flush draw flop?

[TheSeeker03]

Hypothetical hand on PLO25

100 BB stacks

Hero MP3 w/ 8876ds (no spades or diamonds)

2 limpers, Hero calls, CO calls, SB calls.

flop K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Hero Pots, CO repots, folded to Hero, Hero repots??

I am still new to PLO.

[RobertJohn]

It would help if you had some kind of read on this guy b/c a lot of tighter players would never just show up with the nut flush draw in this spot, and the tightest would rarely overplay bottom set on this board.

So, if he is unlikely to be overplaying bottom set, and unlikely to be overplaying a bare nut-flush draw, what can he have?

Pot Size on Flop ~ 6BB
Hero bets 6BB
CO repots to 24BBs, leaving himself ~ 75BBs

If you plan to 3-bet and call his last remaining chips, it will cost you 93BBs to win ~ 111BBs, so you will need ~ 45% equity.

Your opponent might have the following hands (and the percentages are your approx equity against those hands):

KKxx – 9%
AK2, with the nut flush draw – 60%
22xx with two spades - 65%
22xx with no spades – 95%
Just the nut flush draw – 68%

There is not much else he can have.

W/o counting combinations, but assigning some probabilities to the likelihood of him having each particular hand, you can come up with a guesstimate of your equity:

Let’s say he has top set 30% of the time
AK2 with two spades 25%
Bottom set (w/ FD half the time) – 30%
Bare Flush Draw – 15%

.3(.09)+.25(.6)+.3(.8)+.15(.68) = 52% equity.

Once you have a read, you can come up with a better estimate than it being approx. equally likely that he has top set, 2-pair with NFD, or bottom set (as I've estimated here).

Against a maniac, you might gleefully 3-bet, but against a tight set-farmer, you must show caution.

[oneouterson]

For me it would depend on how aggressive I have been playing. If I am playing aggressive this is a instant call or if i'm playing like a nit i'd might fold but it is still close.(read dependent)

[PLOlover]

I think you need a solid reason in order to continue with the hand, without one a clear fold.

[guilt_trip]

Depends on opponent, how deep you are and how fast you've been playing

Mix them all together to get an answer!