Turn Top Pair + Gutshot

Outlaw4033 · #1 04-15-2007, 03:03 PM

I have been at the table for about 20 hands. I haven't shown down any hands and haven't gotten out of line. I have no read on the Villian.

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $54.65
BB: $34.10
Hero (UTG): $50
MP: $49.20
CO: $71.35
BTN: $18.80

Preflop: Hero is dealt J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6 Players)
Hero raises to $1.75, 3 folds, SB calls $1.50, BB calls $1.25

Flop: ($5.25) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 Players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($5.25) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 Players)
SB checks, BB bets $1, Hero calls $1, SB raises to $3.50, BB folds, Hero calls $2.50

River: ($13.25) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB bets $8, Hero calls $8

During the hand I was torn between calling and folding to his turn raise. The only hands I really beat are Ace-Rag and maybe some KQ, KJ stuff, but I don't think Villian would check-raise two unknown Villians with those hands. Maybe if he had Kx with Diamonds he could be semi-bluffing, but I don't think players at 50NL think like that. I ended up calling because I was in position and still had the Q as a clean out. I also thought it was possible the J was an out. Had I been OOP I would have folded to the turn raise.

But in the end I'm pretty sure calling this river is -EV. I think he shows up here with 2 Pair or AQ enough for me to fold. Anybody disagree?

Oh, and if it matters, it took him almost his entire time bank to make the river bet. Had he checked, I would have checked behind.

Thanks!

Outlaw4033 · #2 04-15-2007, 04:06 PM

Anybody?

TheRenaissance · #3 04-15-2007, 04:14 PM

Cbet the flop at least some of the time, it is pretty dry, and you have le slick grande, no?
Turn ok.
River I call as you have underrep'd your hand.

wslee00 · #4 04-15-2007, 05:04 PM

I'm raising that weak turn bet to $4-5. You may have the best hand and you don't want to be calling a big river bet.

Now you've under-repped your hand and instead of losing $5 with a clear idea of where you're at, you have now lost 3.5 with 8 more to call, and you have no idea whether you are good or not. The way the hand went down, looks like SB has two pair minimum. Fold to river bet.

Kondzik · #5 04-15-2007, 05:16 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm raising that weak turn bet to $4-5. You may have the best hand and you don't want to be calling a big river bet.

Now you've under-repped your hand and instead of losing $5 with a clear idea of where you're at, you have now lost 3.5 with 8 more to call, and you have no idea whether you are good or not. The way the hand went down, looks like SB has two pair minimum. Fold to river bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Outlaw4033 · #6 04-15-2007, 05:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Cbet the flop at least some of the time, it is pretty dry, and you have le slick grande, no?
Turn ok.
River I call as you have underrep'd your hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would C-Bet that flop a certain percentage of the time for sure, but early in the session against two unknowns I decided to check behind.

Outlaw4033 · #7 04-15-2007, 05:25 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm raising that weak turn bet to $4-5. You may have the best hand and you don't want to be calling a big river bet.

Now you've under-repped your hand and instead of losing $5 with a clear idea of where you're at, you have now lost 3.5 with 8 more to call, and you have no idea whether you are good or not. The way the hand went down, looks like SB has two pair minimum. Fold to river bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I did feel like a giant woman for not raising that $1 bet. I guess I was trying to control the size of the pot. If I raise the bet and then the SB comes back over the top I have to think I'm behind 100% of the time. But like you said, thats a much better plan than calling and re-evaluating the river.

As played, I ended up calling the river and took down the pot.