A3s where I fold two pair

milesdyson · #1 04-09-2007, 09:08 PM

People in the Stars thread commented on this hand so I'm bringing it to the masses.

The small blind is dbeckham, a TAG in the Stars 5/10 game. He plays a lot, but I don't really have much on him at the time of this hand. He's like 28/19/2 after almost 1000 hands.

The button here is loose and passive. I put him on AT/AJ/AQ/A5/A7/55 or 77 when he raises me on the flop. Maybe you can throw in like 75s, A9, 8c6s, and Kc5c or something, too. Either way my plan is to call his flop raise and check fold the turn unimproved if he bets again.

dbeckham has been at the table just as long as I have so I think that he should have a similar range for the button, thus making my turn fold trivially easy. So what am I missing?

PokerStars 5/10 Hold'em (5 handed) internettexasholdem.com

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. MP posts a blind of $5.
Hero raises, 1 fold, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (9 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets, Button raises, SB calls, BB folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (7.50 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, Button bets, SB raises, Hero folds.

jstill · #2 04-09-2007, 09:41 PM

seems good to me, I cant imagine calling down.

75s 73s or 53s probably are not often in his range here correct? Even if they are thats only 6 combos and I cant see him doing this with any other worse hands, plus the parlay. Button being loose passive could still have u beat with 77 55 A7 A5 or atleast has a hand like AK with 9 outs against u.

vmacosta · #3 04-09-2007, 09:57 PM

What are button's stats? I give all but the most passive fish a wider range than you gave and maybe dbeckham does too.

jstill · #4 04-09-2007, 10:02 PM

lets say beckham does give him like A9+ for button and some draws, does that mean hes gonna call two cold with a hand like AJ (id imagine he 3balls AQo or AKo here 100% of the time preflop)then check-raise the turn trying to shut out the pfr who bet the flop then called after a cold caller? If so good for him, he knocks me off a better hand than his, but hes still gotta beat the loose passive preflop cold caller and flop raiser, who bet the turn in position. If beckham has a worse hand he is still probably better off IMO folding the flop with A9 AT then playing it like he mite have here.

Mandor_TFL · #5 04-10-2007, 02:02 AM

Ok so you suck out on turn against all big aces, you check to passive fish who bets ( and passive fish betting imo usually means little, c/r and 3 bets take seriously but betting after weakness means little usually ) and now Tag c/r against passive fish. What are you worried about? Would you not c/r AK here? Now should you 3-ball or just call is the question.

Now if the board had two broadways you would have a real decision, but being all low would lead me to think I was way ahead.

Edit I see why your a little concerned over flop c/r by fish. Since when have fish learned to play strong hands fast. They always seem to slowplay 2 pairs and sets. Your still way ahead of TAG, and usually ahead of fish, who Im putting on a draw or your really unlucky and ran into fishes A7 or A5 off suit.

HOWMANY · #6 04-10-2007, 03:34 AM

First let me say that I always assume other tags pay no attention to what kind of fish they are playing because I never see them make any good adjustments like calling down psychos or folding against loose passives. They just see a crappy player and then take every pair to showdown.

That said I don't fold two pair here ever which could certainly be a leak. I would honestly probably c/3spew the way it turned out but I would rather bet/3bet the fish because even most loose passive fish online think top pair is the nuts and are capable of raising the flop with a flush draw sometimes. I think if you're going to fold this turn you may as well fold the flop because you are behind unless two of them have flush draws. If I was playing the hand I would think the fish had the Ace and the tag had the flush draw on the flop. On the turn after we only called the flop the tag won't think we have an Ace so he can raise turn with pretty much any Ace against the fish because he just sees the fish as a bad player without giving thought to what exactly it is that makes him a fish.

I think that just calling the tag's c/r on the turn might be the best play once you check but I'm pretty sure I'd 3bet which is probably not the right play against his range since we're guaranteed getting capped every time we're behind and he might miraculously find a fold with like A8s+, although I always assume no tag can fold top pair ever. I like donking online because people don't like when you do it and they seem to raise a lot more than they should. If fish raises I think you have an easy 3bet because he's a fish and you have two pair. If tag c/r then you can call down because you have two pair.

After reading my response it sounds like the most results oriented thing I've ever written, but I'm almost positive that I would actually play it like I said I would.

knockonwood · #7 04-10-2007, 05:45 AM

Miles, I'm suprised you folded this. There are a lot of A big kicker hands that a lot of passive players would c/r here with. AcKc would be a likely hand also. You may be behind to a set, but I would call this down.

timoK · #8 04-10-2007, 06:10 AM

1) why do you raise A3s UTG with the dead guy back in the hand and a loose guy on the button?

2) dbeckham is playing A LOT on the lower limits, yet he is the biggest loser (he also plays the most) over the last two months on 5-10 (he kills 3-6). so beside having TAGish stats (over 20k hands the above mentioned are right) he must be doing something wrong at 5-10.

3) flop: TAG checks you bet, fish raises, both calls.
this dont have to mean anything yet.
turn: TAG checks, you check, fish bets, and the trickisch-aggressiv hardvore multitabler c/r the fish after you shown no strength anymore.

TAG gets 3.5:1 preflop so he can any kind of a hand but beside 55 and 77 nothing is a hand that beats you.

I cold call this with the intention to call 1 bet on the river (except the board pairs ugly) and I will be good at least 1 in 4 times

jstill · #9 04-10-2007, 08:16 AM

i dont get what most of u are saying this hand.

on the flop when a fish raises (he didnt cr) it could be alot of things. 77 55 A7 A5 a flush draw or a big ace or maybe an oddly played hand like 99. When beckham calls 2 back cold it means even fewer things (a fd, A7s (2 combos) A5s ( 1 combo) 77 55 (3 each) rarely a hand like AT, i dont get how timok ur saying 77 and 55 ). I dont get how people say the flop action means little, thats just stupid. Also including a hand like AK in beckhams range is pretty retarded. With his stats after a raise and a cold call hes probably even 3betting AJo here preflop. I also doubt 75s two pair hands cold call in the sb if its a 2/5 structure but maybe. Id be very inclined to think hed check 3bet those tho, rather than take this line.

The turn gives us even more info. When the fish bets in position against two players the chance of a fd drops pretty quickly. When beckham cr's the turn I also doubt hes doing it with a fd very often in a protected pot (i dont play with him tho, is that anyones read?). His line no matter what seems weird tho, if i didnt 3bet the flop with a better hand than miles id probably lead the turn.

Sure u could have sucked out on buttons AJ, and beckham could be making a play thinking hes got buttons range in ok shape with AT thinking hed play any A this way and just wants to lose ur AJ AQ or whatever but the parlay seems like too much to want to put 3 more bbs in this pot which will end up at around 13 bbs or so besides ur 3 more (best case scenario). Those arent the most enticing odds.

Guy McSucker · #10 04-10-2007, 08:20 AM

[ QUOTE ]

he is the biggest loser (he also plays the most) over the last two months on 5-10 (he kills 3-6). so beside having TAGish stats (over 20k hands the above mentioned are right) he must be doing something wrong at 5-10.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ermm... variance?

It's a really bad idea to base reads on observed winrate. Actually it's a fairly bad idea to base anything on observed winrate, apart from cashouts.

Guy.