TOP SET!!!! turn brings a 4 straight >=0 50NL

[the machine]

no reads on villain. only stats over 91 hands is 55/15/2.25 but small smaple. def probably a big fish

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Hold'em Cash Game
$0.25/$0.50 Blinds
5 Players
Lego Poker Hand Converter

<font color="black">Stack Sizes</font>
SB: $48
BB: $20.45
UTG: $57.35
<font color="black">Hero (CO): $58.65</font>
BTN: $72.90

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($0.75, 5 Players)
UTG folds, Hero raises to $2, BTN folds, SB folds, BB calls $1.50

<font color="black">Flop:</font> 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($4.25, 2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets $3.50, BB calls $3.50

<font color="black">Turn:</font> 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($11.25, 2 Players)
BB bets $11.25, Hero???

[paulw]

Tough spot here, it's almost flip a coin type stuff with no reads. If he had a bigger stack i'd be more likely to fold, he literally could have anything from 2 pair, A,K,Q,J/T or something like A9 with stats like those. I'm probably paying him off and drawing to 6 outs.

I don't play on Full Tilt but do most fish with small stacks hit the bet pot button with a T in their hand in these circumstances? What was the timing like?

edit: Is my range for villan too wide here?

Board: 7c 8s 6d 9h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.533% 34.66% 03.87% 1342 150.00 { 8c8d }
Hand 1: 61.467% 57.59% 03.87% 2230 150.00 { TT, ATs-A9s, KTs, QTs, JTs, 98s, 87s, ATo-A9o, KTo, QTo, JTo, 98o, 87o }

[Vyse]

Usually when fish bet the pot they have it. Isn't it 10 outs though?

[the machine]

snap bet

[paulw]

Yeah 10 outs, my bad

[gol4pro]

Wow, very tough spot.

I still think I dump it without a better read. As easily as this clown could be bluffing, I see this line an awful lot with monsters.

[Isura]

It's way more likely that he has a 9 than a T. Or some kind of two pair. I would push it in.

[thac]

[ QUOTE ]
It's way more likely that he has a 9 than a T. Or some kind of two pair. I would push it in.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah I was thinking some kind of 97s hand or something as well. I shove the turn. I don't think he calls with the idiot end of the straight on the flop.

[gol4pro]

I agree somewhat with Isura, but I think it's the 5 that we see here a bunch.

This might be close enough though to actually push it in (since we have outs). Lemme do some quick math.

Pot odds; 11.25+ 11.25+ 5/ 11.25 = 27.5/11 = 2.5

Plus, we win ~22% of the time our read sucks.

.2(27.5)(y) = -.8(11.25)y

5y = -9y
y = -9/5, so the actual pot odds are actually much closer to around 3:1.

I'm not quite 75% sure he has it, especially with those stats, so I'll say stick it in.

[Zagga]

Just put him all in here, he only had $20 before the hand and by his turnbet I think he is pretty much allin already. You can not fold a set in Micro stakes NL against a 40bb shortstack, ever.

If he had like $15 I would even call him all in if I didn't hit a set with 88. I have no respect at all for people with short stacks and I usually see them turn over such idiotic cards that prove me right. Short stacks don't even know the most important rule of cash games (always buy in max) so you can't expect them to know a lot more about serious poker, putting someone like that on a range of hands is really giving him too much credit.

Here, he could easilly hold A9o, 69o, 9J, KQ, AA, KK, QQ, JJ 67o, maybe even an underpair. You are so far ahead of him and have plenty of outs when behind.

EDIT: This really is not a tough spot, it is a hellish easy spot. Things would be different if both were 100bb+