In which I check behind a boat on the river

DJ Sensei · #1 04-03-2007, 04:04 AM

5/10 on bodog, we're playing 3-handed. Button is new to the table, but SB and I (in the BB) have been tangling for a while now. The first significant hand we played, he raised and I called with 97 suited in position, and he check-called 3 barrels of mine on a J8388 board with 43h, straight zeebo style. I berated him a little, kinda, but nothing serious. I also noted him as a mega callstation right afterwards, but in subsequent hands he seemed to be playing solidly, and in some spots doesnt pay me off when my draw comes in on the river. I double up off him once with AA over his AK on a Kxx flop, and win some other pots with basically a run of solid holdings. I get the feeling that he's good enough to adjust his play to the results of the first big calldown hand, and won't be calling me down superlight because he expects me to expect that. Or so it seems, as always its hard to tell.

Anyhow, on to the hand. Button folds, Villain opens his SB for 35, which is nothing unusual. He has a little over 1900 in his stack, I cover. I think about reraising, but just call with 33.

Flop comes K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. He leads $52 or so into a $70 pot, I raise it to $180, he calls.

Turn is A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. He checks, I think for a while, and bet $270 into the $430 pot. I'm not sure how I feel about this bet, but I think it might be better than checking behind or betting more. He calls after some thought.

River is A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. He checks after extended thought. The pot is now about $1000, and he has about $1400 behind. I tank and check behind.

My primary concern obviously is that he has a bigger boat going for a c/r against my presumably on-the-way river bet, but I also dont know what kind of worse hands pay off a value bet. Its a little tricky to say what his range is given our short but active history, too.

So, is this gross? If you think so, please let me know how much you would bet, and whether or not you would call a c/r shove.

Hoopster81 · #2 04-03-2007, 04:10 AM

I would for sure bet/fold this 1/2 pot or whatever

dtan05 · #3 04-03-2007, 04:36 AM

I can't see any worse hands paying off a value bet, unless you took a bluffy looking line, but you said that there wasn't much history cept for that hand, so I probably play it like you did. I mean, he could have QT or flush, but yeah, I just can't see them paying off a very obvious 1/2 pot vbet, unless you use vbets as bluffs too.

DJ Sensei · #4 04-03-2007, 04:46 AM

well i'm fairly sure that if he c/r-s me on the river, i'm toast and can fold regardless of the odds i'm getting. it just comes down to whether a bet is going to have enough value in calls from worse hands to justify it, given that we sometimes lose that additional bet to a better hand.

David1234 · #5 04-03-2007, 04:52 AM

I would definitely bet this river, you could be playing back on this flop here and betting a not so good turn card for him. People don't like to get bluffed. I could even see pushing here.

terp · #6 04-03-2007, 05:38 AM

exactly which bigger boat do you expect to see here? AA? AK? does he even call the flop with AJ?

i'm having a hard time with this because i think the range i'm assigning him might not be accurate.

i have to imagine that 33 is the top of your valuebetting range at this point, unless you choose to play AK/AJ like this some % of the time pre/post. given that your valuebetting range is so small, he's probably going to expect you to be bluffing here quite frequently if you bet so i think you should be betting w/3s full...

btw, very nice job with the reads - reminds me that you haven't written a live play trip report recently.

Jason Strasser (strassa2) · #7 04-03-2007, 05:42 AM

it becomes so hard to bluff here if you are not going to value bet here. that being said, i think even just looking at this hand in a box, a river value bet is almost always +EV here. Bet/fold.

Big_Jim · #8 04-03-2007, 05:52 AM

I really don't like the turn bet much. Everything just got there, so he should be able to make a lot of laydowns on you, and he'll usually c/r when you're beat, unless he has an overset.

On the river, with this history, I think you have to bet. Hard to fold trip As after looking you up on flop and turn, now that his hand has "improved."

If you don't think he'd ever c/r without a bigger boat, I'd bet like $400, and try to suck him in. If you think he might sometimes try it, I would go with more like $700 or $800 to prevent that bluff.

Reef · #9 04-03-2007, 06:03 AM

man, I think bet/fold

QT will pay you .. KJ.. KQ could make a hero call .. weirdly played flush.

mayday4379 · #10 04-03-2007, 10:37 AM

I've been playing a lot of shorthanded lately and so much of that game is based on reads. A lot of times someone will look you up with a K here and there are times when you will never get anything to pay you off.

from a vacuum perspective, this looks like villain is trying to manange the pot. I think he's afraid of the all in reraise with a boat or flush and he's trying to make it to the river with a cheap Ace or K.

I'm not sure what he called the Reraise with on the flop, but KQ, KJ, FD are all in his range. I bet this river for 4-500 and fold to a push.