Set on monotone flop

lotus guardian · #1 04-01-2007, 11:41 AM

Villain is 47/15/0.76 over 100 hands.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG ($23.65)
MP ($25.43)
CO ($174.35)
Button ($74.73)
Hero ($101.85)
BB ($97.04)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Hero posts a blind of $0.50.
UTG calls $1, MP calls $1, 1 fold, Button calls $1, Hero (poster) completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($5) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG bets $2, MP calls $2, Button folds, Hero raises to $9, BB calls $9, UTG folds, MP calls $7.

Turn: ($34) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets $23, BB raises to $87.04 (All-In), MP folds, Hero ???

APate · #2 04-01-2007, 12:30 PM

Why didnt u raise it preflop? (implied odds?)
Because u didnt raise it, it is much harder to guess what the opp could be holding. Because of his pfr of 15 i dont think he is holding a pocket pair, making me think he doesnt play a set.

A straight (which would be possible regarding he is the bb) he wouldnt played that aggresively, considering his cold call on the flop.

So I would fold, because i think he is holding a high flush.
He cold calls the raise on the flop, so he doenst seem to be afraid of the 3 spades, but he didnt reraises it himself, maybe not to scare the others away, or at least not afraid of giving another card to you.
If he would hold a small flush i think he would shove the flop.

wdead · #3 04-01-2007, 12:33 PM

u gotta call 64 to win 135. usually villain has nut flush here, sometimes he has higher set, rarely he has a str8, and almost never he has two pair. looks like a fold

Al_Money · #4 04-01-2007, 12:33 PM

Preflop is fine w/ all those limpers. I raise more on the flop, bet more on the turn and call the push. This guy is pretty awful, I think we see a pretty wide range of hands here.

wdead · #5 04-01-2007, 12:34 PM

guys notice that villain called two bets COLD on the flop then c/r turn. this is like 95% nut flush

Al_Money · #6 04-01-2007, 12:35 PM

[ QUOTE ]
guys notice that villain called two bets COLD on the flop then c/r turn. this is like 95% nut flush

[/ QUOTE ]

he didn't c/r the turn.

wdead · #7 04-01-2007, 12:37 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
guys notice that villain called two bets COLD on the flop then c/r turn. this is like 95% nut flush

[/ QUOTE ]

he didn't c/r the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

yes, you are right. it is still 95% nut flush.

Al_Money · #8 04-01-2007, 12:42 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
guys notice that villain called two bets COLD on the flop then c/r turn. this is like 95% nut flush

[/ QUOTE ]

he didn't c/r the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

yes, you are right. it is still 95% nut flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

idk if I would say 95%, it's certainly possible but this guy is really bad. Notice that OP is playing on Party Poker. I wouldn't be surprised to see Qx here honestly. we also have some outs vs. the flush. I think its a call but I could be wrong.

wdead · #9 04-01-2007, 12:45 PM

haha party poker actually that does make a difference.

gir · #10 04-01-2007, 12:55 PM

What are the odds of redrawing to a full house? If we're assuming nut flush, all of our odds are clean giving us 10 outs. I'd say there's a 75% of flush (or straight) here. And 25% chance of hands we have dominated (overpair, two pair).

We have to call $64 to win $135. There's a 25% chance he has something we beat and a 25% chance (10 outs, right?) of a redraw to a full house and we're getting a bit better than 2:1. I say this is close, but I'd say call. I feel we have the odds.