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#1
03-31-2007, 04:48 PM
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Range and equity estimation vs. orange
Villain is orange. I thought initially that this was pretty clear, but have gotten to thinking about what his range likely is for his flop raise, etc etc, and I think I was probably wrong. I have been playing something like 23/20, so has he.
This may seem boring, but playing with range and equity calculations both for my action and also for what his raising range on this flop should be is kinda interesting imo. Poker Stars No Limit Holdem Ring game Blinds: $1/$2 6 players Converter Stack sizes: UTG: $75.70 Hero: $194 CO: $258.15 Button: $202.55 SB: $230.30 BB: $441.40 Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is UTG+1 with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] UTG calls, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $10</font>, 2 folds, SB calls, BB folds, UTG calls. Flop: 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($32, 3 players) SB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $22</font>, <font color="#cc0000">SB raises to $88</font>, UTG folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero ????? </font> 
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#4
03-31-2007, 05:03 PM
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Re: Range and equity estimation vs. orange
[ QUOTE ]
you can call and fold to a turn bet UI. [/ QUOTE ] I don't think equity changes that much on UI turns. Any draw orange is c/r'ing here, he's pushing on the turn (or I think he would).
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#6
03-31-2007, 05:03 PM
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Re: Range and equity estimation vs. orange
[ QUOTE ]
Umm I insta-shove [/ QUOTE ] in general i like instashoving (not necessarily in this spot, just generally. it feels good). but what do you think his range is to raise this flop, and what do you think his shove calling range is? maybe it's not cool to speculate too much on a known 2p2er like this, but i feel like most good aggro players should have pretty similar ranges in spots like this, so it's not really so orange-specific IMO. but orange, if you'd rather we don't speculate too much on this speak up and i won't.
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#7
03-31-2007, 05:03 PM
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Re: Range and equity estimation vs. orange
Orange never is never semi bluffing here IME. Looks like a flopped set or low flush.
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#8
03-31-2007, 05:12 PM
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Re: Range and equity estimation vs. orange
[ QUOTE ]
Orange never is never semi bluffing here IME. Looks like a flopped set or low flush. [/ QUOTE ] I think generally this is right. With a hand like A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Jx I would heavily consider making this play. or b/3b.
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#9
03-31-2007, 05:17 PM
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Re: Range and equity estimation vs. orange
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Orange never is never semi bluffing here IME. Looks like a flopped set or low flush. [/ QUOTE ] I think generally this is right. With a hand like A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Jx I would heavily consider making this play. or b/3b. [/ QUOTE ] True but you're not cold calling with AJo from the small blind from a button raise ever. You almost never have the Ad in this spot.
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#10
03-31-2007, 05:15 PM
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Re: Range and equity estimation vs. orange
[ QUOTE ]
Orange never is never semi bluffing here IME. Looks like a flopped set or low flush. [/ QUOTE ] initially I thought low flush is a good part of his range. But are good 2p2ers calling out of the SB with low suited connectors these days?
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