Pretty boring strategy which should define "good player"

[clowntable]

Setup: Vanilla game
If you are villager/seer just make one post every day
"I am a villager"
If you are a wolf just make one post every day
"I am a wolf"
Be 100% honest. If everyone plays like this, village wins every game, wolves lose every game.

So basically this means to be a good player, you need an average win rate over all roles that is > 1-chances_of_being_wolf
This is higher than expected because I always assumed 60% is a very good win rate.

This is probably also very obvious, just wnated to put it up here. Now let's get the turbo league going and see who can achive that 1-3/13 = 77% win rate.

[DMBFan23]

the flaw in your reasoning IMO is that the wolves won't follow the strategy. In theory, with a correctly balanced game with just good/evil, anything above 50% means you're better than expected, but in practice many of the theme games aren't balanced and/or contain neutral roles.

[Nicholasp27]

what u are proposing is not a balanced game

a 13-er is considered pretty balanced...if we assume that it is balanced, then you should win 50% of the time, no matter what side u are randed to...so anything >50% over the very long run would mean you are better than average

[clowntable]

I'm just saying there is a dumb strategy that gives everyone a 77% win rate in a 13er. So I'm thinking to be really good you'd have to beat that.

[Nicholasp27]

i don't think that works

for that strategy to work, everyone has to follow it...if everyone does, it's no longer a balanced game (it's also basically impossible to get >77% over infinite trials if everyone follows that each game)...u've essentially changed the game by having everyone play that strategy...same thing as making it part of the ruleset


a 13er is balanced, so 50% is rand() win rate...anything above is better than average...

[Zurvan]

Clown: that's not the win % of a good player. That's the % of the time you're a villager. Your theory is fundamentally flawed.

[DMBFan23]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm just saying there is a dumb strategy that gives everyone a 77% win rate in a 13er. So I'm thinking to be really good you'd have to beat that.

[/ QUOTE ]

so you're not proposing it as an actual strategy from which to deviate, you're just using the resulting win% as a benchmark to establish a win % for a good player? ok, fair enough.

Personally I think the village should win more but I have always been a village homer.

[kyro]

What a useless thread

[clowntable]

I'm saying a good player might give up his chances of winning as a wolf for a gurantee to win everytime as a villager or try to get as close to this as possible. This might be flawed and even dumb but I think it's a fair trade.

At least it should show people that it might not be such a good idea to mix up your village game to improve the wolf game simply because one is villager far more often.

[kyro]

also to humor clownface

The goal isn't to win ~75% of the time ninny. It's to win 100% of the time. Your "strategy" renders that impossible.