50NL 225 BB Deep with a set in a reraised pot

[AsydRayne]

BB is a short stacked donkey playing 80 / 13 / 1.5 over 40 hands
BTN is a good but very aggressive player 23 / 19 / 6 over about 180 hands

I have been playing pretty standard TAG and my stats should be about 20 / 15 / 3
Poker Stars
No Limit Hold'em Cash Game
$0.25/$0.50 Blinds
6 Players
Lego Poker Hand Converter

<font color="black">Stack Sizes</font>
SB: $56.25
<font color="green">BB: $10.20</font>
UTG: $22.40
<font color="green">Hero (MP): $145.80</font>
CO: $49.20
<font color="green">BTN: $121.55</font>

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($0.75, 6 Players)
UTG folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $2</font>, CO folds, <font color="red">BTN raises to $6.50</font>, SB folds, BB calls $6, Hero calls $4.50

<font color="black">Flop:</font> Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($19.75, 3 Players)
<font color="red">BB bets $0.50</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $4</font>, <font color="red">BTN raises to $16</font>, BB calls all-in for $3.20, <font color="red">Hero ??</font>

This was an interesting hand. I think I made a mistake with my next move, but the villain nullified it by making a bigger mistake. What do you guys think the best play is here?

[thac]

Just call. Look at the board. You aren't gonna be scared of any turn card with the action so far. Raising here is pointless and dumb and will lose you so much money in the long run. I like a small lead on the turn, like half-pot. It'll probably entice him to raise all of his hands he'd bet with on the turn and if he just calls, you have a bit of extra money in so you can put the rest in on the river.

So, cliffnotes - Call flop, Bet around $28 into the ~$55 pot, and if he calls you have a $111 pot with not that much left to put in.

[Abelardo]

Yeah I like thac plan, I either do that or c/r the turn as well, this guy looks pretty aggro so I think either is fine, whatever brings the most money in the middle, he will have a hard time folding AQ and probably call down with AK. Oh yeah, flop play doesn't look good but it worked out fine here.

[thac]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah I like thac plan, I either do that or c/r the turn as well, this guy looks pretty aggro so I think either is fine, whatever brings the most money in the middle, he will have a hard time folding AQ and probably call down with AK. Oh yeah, flop play doesn't look good but it worked out fine here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't like checkraising the turn because it requires him to bet. Sure, he probably will, but if you weak-lead into an aggro villain he's gonna most likely raise you anyways, so if you bet, you ensure that SOME money goes in on the turn. You still have a LOT of money to get in and checking to hope that he bets is pretty bad I think.

[AsydRayne]

[ QUOTE ]
So, cliffnotes - Call flop, Bet around $28 into the ~$55 pot, and if he calls you have a $111 pot with not that much left to put in.

[/ QUOTE ]

In thinking through this after the fact, I also think a call is the right move here. A raise will probably only get called by hands that beat me. With this action and board, he has to have a hand to still be playing, and the only hand I'm beating that I should get a call from is AQ. But lets continue that line to the actual turn.
<font color="black">Turn:</font> Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Do I still lead the turn or do I have to revert to c/c mode. It appears with that horrible turn I'm not getting a call from any hand that I beat.

[Abelardo]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Yeah I like thac plan, I either do that or c/r the turn as well, this guy looks pretty aggro so I think either is fine, whatever brings the most money in the middle, he will have a hard time folding AQ and probably call down with AK. Oh yeah, flop play doesn't look good but it worked out fine here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't like checkraising the turn because it requires him to bet. Sure, he probably will, but if you weak-lead into an aggro villain he's gonna most likely raise you anyways, so if you bet, you ensure that SOME money goes in on the turn. You still have a LOT of money to get in and checking to hope that he bets is pretty bad I think.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for explaining, makes sense.

[thac]

Wow, that's a pretty nasty turn and one of the few you don't wanna see (LDO, I know). If you just call flop, I think it's pretty player dependent.

I know 180 hands isn't a lot but look at his WTSD and W$SD stats, it'll tell you what to do here. If his WTSD stats are higher than 25% and his W$SD stats aren't incredibly high (around 50 or so), I lead and definitely still call a shove. If his stats aren't too bad, check/calling is okay because he's pretty aggressive and will bet every hand in his range.

On the river, it's still pretty important to get all-in here.. you're only afraid of AQ here, as every other hand was beating you already. Do whatever is necessary to get all-in if you aren't all-in by the river.

[AsydRayne]

[ QUOTE ]
Oh yeah, flop play doesn't look good but it worked out fine here.

[/ QUOTE ]

What about the flop don't you like? I treated the minbet from the donkey as a check, likely a queen or a weak ace. I figured if I did a strong lead into him, he would happily fold hands that I'm beating. My small lead works kind of like a blocking bet for hands that are crushing me because it looks week and encourages him to call with AA or QQ to lure me in on the turn. And the hands I'm beating AK, AQ, AJ (maybe even KK) might try a raise.

Is my reasoning faulty here?

[Debaser]

[ QUOTE ]
Do whatever is necessary to get all-in if you aren't all-in by the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think if all the money goes in at any point we're gonna lose this hand a significant majority of the time against a good player. What does he stack off with here? Any ace will be spooked by the Q on the turn, KK will give up after his flop raise was called. The worst hand you can hope to see is KQ and that would mean he rr pf and raised the flop bet, pretty unlikely.

100bb deep this is a no brainer but I HATE getting all in here against someone decent.

[Abelardo]

I just thought this bet looks strange, the pot is pretty big, I agree shortie bet is basically a check but I think you need to put money in the middle, if he has KK or JJ you're not going to get action anyways and AK is not going anywhere at this point and will at least call and probably raise, AQ will almost always raise you here, sure he can try to lure you with AA or QQ but the money is going in almost always. I know I would get a bit suspicious of that small bet if I know I'm against someone that I think is a good player and probably dump stuff like AK somewhere if I don't spike trips or 2 pair. I would love to read more opinions regarding this matter.

Oh and that turn card is awful, this deep I hate it, I'd still bet out the turn and try to block the river but get out if raised a significant amount.