Random Thoughts on the Current State of Poker

[gman06]

I know a few other posters have touched on this subject already, but in light of many of the posts in the general MSNL March thread and tizerds post in HSNL, I decided to throw my opinion out there.

First of all, I want to respond to many 2+2ers posting about how they are generally bored with the game and the fact that the games have tightened up, making these peoples disinterested in playing. I personally think that this sentiment is a little bit ridiculous. I think I am making a reasonable estimate when I say that many MSNLers were making around 250/hr. pre-legislation (obviously some of them were making a lot more). If I had to make an educated guess, I would say the guy making $250 before is now making about $150-175 an hour. For those of you who think this hourly rate is not worth your time or energy, you should seriously consider your alternatives. I know a lot of you, much like myself, are in college and have never really dealt with a monontonous, 40 hour a week job where you make 25/hr or 50k a year. No matter how well any of you have done, there will be a time (probably in the near future for most of you) where the money will begin to run dry and you may have wished you had not given up playing.

Others have argued that poker consumed their entire life and they didn't have time for school, exercise, a social life, family, ect. I also believe this is a rather superficial argument. At my peak, I was playing at most 20 hours a week of poker and still had more than enough time to go to school full time, work out, and party 3 nights a week. Currently I probably play at most 10 hours a week and am making more than 98% of the American population. Poker gives me the freedom to do whatever I want whenever I please with more than enough money to do it. If you believe that playing 10-20 hours a week ruins your life, I would not be surprised if you have some serious balance or time management issues already.

The other and more important issue I wanted to bring up is the current state of the games. I have read about a number of well-known 2+2ers going through long-term (100k+ hands) breakeven or losing streaks. Without sounding like too much of a dick, I honestly believe that most of these players simply are not very talented poker players. I have made 5/10NL my main game with some play at 10/20 and 25/50. At all of these stakes (and especially 5/10NL), there are still a large number of simply terrible players. At least once a session I will review a hand where someone stacked off to me with an absolutely indefensible play.

I do recognize and believe that the games have toughened up. But I also think that there is a great deal of truth to the term "tagfish". One 2+2er posted a PT screenshot showing the biggest losers at 5/10. I looked at that list and smiled to myself because some (not all!) of these players define a tagfish. I can say with confidence that winning money from these types of players is the difference between being a marginal winner or breakever player and being one of the big winners in your game.

No longer are a lot of the guys who have played 100k hands lifetime destroying the MSNL games. No longer are the systematic, abc players who used to rely on picking up a big hand and getting payed off by the fish winning. No longer are the overaggressive LAGS who 3-bet 20% of their hands because the nits refused to adjust winning.

Instead, the current state of online poker is forcing you to actually be a really good poker player to make the big money (gasp!). Now the difference between making the right and wrong decisions in very marginal situations is the difference between winning and loosing, instead of the difference between being a 3 or 5bb/100 guy. In today's game, I believe the players who have been thinking, studying, reading, and most importantly playing poker for 4-5 years instead of 6 months are getting paid off for their hard work. I think the players who have played 500k+ hands online are being rewarded as opposed to the guys who have played 20k hands at 4-5 limits and moved up insanely fast. And finally, the players who have the natural ability, the "feel" aspect that is nearly impossible to teach, are being rewarded as they very often are making the right decisions in very tough spots.

I know I have kind of rambled on in this post, but I guess what I am trying to say to the 2+2 community is not to give up. Don't quit because you have saved up 50k and its harder to win now. Instead, focus on getting better all the time and always staying one step ahead of everyone else. As long as online poker is here to stay, I personally believe that there will always be plenty of money out there to be won. It simply will be a matter of who's talented enough and who works hard enough to grab it. Good luck at the tables guys.

[Overfloater]

poker talent... innate or can it be taught? what say you socrates. Has 2p2 become the haven of sophists?

[Hoopster81]

Good post

You have to be willing to work on your game. My $/hr has increased a fair amount since the legislation, and it's really just because I have outworked other players.

[PerDoom]

As games get tougher, the best players will continue to win, while slight winners before will lose. SHOCKING

[Parlay Slow]

most people are flat out too lazy to get their game to the level described

[Surf]

[ QUOTE ]
Good post

You have to be willing to work on your game. My $/hr has increased a fair amount since the legislation, and it's really just because I have outworked other players.

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[9cao]

[ QUOTE ]
The other and more important issue I wanted to bring up is the current state of the games. I have read about a number of well-known 2+2ers going through long-term (100k+ hands) breakeven or losing streaks. Without sounding like too much of a dick, I honestly believe that most of these players simply are not very talented poker players.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are naive. "Skill" is no match for variance. Run some simulations using various winrates and standard deviations and you will see.

[gman06]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The other and more important issue I wanted to bring up is the current state of the games. I have read about a number of well-known 2+2ers going through long-term (100k+ hands) breakeven or losing streaks. Without sounding like too much of a dick, I honestly believe that most of these players simply are not very talented poker players.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are naive. "Skill" is no match for variance. Run some simulations using various winrates and standard deviations and you will see.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm sure you are correct, but I am a firm believer that someone who breaks even for 100k hands simply was a not a good enough player (or didn't play like it) to be one of the better players at that level. Either way, this doesn't really have that much to do with the overall gist of the post.

[goodguy_1]

Loc: PM for coaching

the overall gist of the post seems to be to spam your services as a coach eventhough what you say is 100% correct.

you've probably come to the realization that currently coaching is more profitable for you than playing...just seems convenient to say the least.

[thedustbustr]

whats with all the random nobodies offering coaching these days