100NL flush on a paired board vs a donk

Robin Donks · #1 03-25-2007, 08:49 AM

Only a couple of orbits at the table, no stats on villain yet but he seems loose preflop and aggro postflop. Turn overbet was instant which seemed weird. Thoughts?

PokerRoom No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|saw showdown

Button ($53.95)
SB ($68.20)
BB ($239.50)
UTG ($30.05)
UTG+1 ($85.90)
MP1 ($100.00)
MP2 ($129.85)
Hero ($98.50)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
4 folds, Hero raises to $4, 1 fold, SB calls $3.50, 1 fold.

Flop: ($9) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $6, SB calls $6.

Turn: ($21) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets $58.2 (All-In), Hero ?

Falc · #2 03-25-2007, 09:06 AM

Call all day long. He'll have Qx, a lone spade, air and all sorts of crap way more than any hand that beats you.

emmapeel9 · #3 03-25-2007, 11:42 AM

The thing that I find odd here is that Hero hasn't given any indication as to what kind of hand Villain might be up against. A late position raise and a possible C/B can't really give away too much. Therefore I don't understand the turn push here. It seems to let a lot of hands of the hook if Villain does have a flush here.

I think I'm going to call. Villain might have 3 Queens and made a panicy play or this might even be a bluff.

It might not be the best as it doesn't look too good but I don't think I can fold against an aggressive player here.

EP

Roma Norgy · #4 03-25-2007, 01:31 PM

Posters love to cite what a villain might have that you beat and encourage a call. The most important piece of information in this entire post and hand is "SB ($68.20)." Unless the villain hasn't had time to rebuy between losing a biggish pot, then he's certainly a subpar player.

What nobody has pointed out yet is that this seemingly agressive player just called on the flop. In my mind, that dramatically reduces the possibility in which he has complete air. The only real line of thought that supports him having total air would be, "scary flop, call with plans to outplay."

A loose preflop player is much more likely to have something that beats you here than a tight one. A non-nut flush on a paired board is a much greater cause for panic than some Qx that just found some major help on the turn. When a player like this goes all-in it's usually for one of three reasons, psycho bluffer syndrome, trying not to misplay their good hand, or trying to trap a lesser hand.

Psycho Bluffer Syndrome (PBS), supports the notion of him having air or Queens up, any of which could be coupled with a flush draw.

Trying not to misplay their good hand or trying to trap a lesser hand both allude to a flush, Qx, or even an overpair. Overpairs and Qx, could be paired with flush possibilities as well.

IMO, straight air or an unimproved flush draw are just not very likely here. Those would be signs of a total aggro-donk, and "loose preflop and aggro postflop" is not enough information to support that.

There's also a slight, but negligible, possibility of him having some sort of full house.

Let's keep it simple and say there's an equal possibility that the villain would play any Qx or any flush like this. But, even vs the very creme of his range we're still a favorite.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 58.086% 58.09% 00.00% 2658 0.00 { 8s5s }
Hand 1: 41.914% 41.91% 00.00% 1918 0.00 { AsKs, AcQc, AdQd, AhQh, AsJs, AsTs, As9s, As8s, As7s, As5s, As4s, As3s, KcQc, KdQd, KhQh, KsJs, KsTs, Ks9s, Ks8s, Ks7s, Ks5s, Ks4s, Ks3s, QcJc, QdJd, QhJh, QcTc, QdTd, QhTh, Qc9c, Qd9d, Qh9h, Qc8c, Qd8d, Qh8h, Qc7c, Qd7d, Qh7h, Qc5c, Qd5d, Qh5h, Qc4c, Qd4d, Qh4h, Qc3c, Qd3d, Qh3h, JsTs, Js9s, Js8s, Js7s, Js5s, Js4s, Js3s, Ts9s, Ts8s, Ts7s, Ts5s, Ts4s, Ts3s, 9s8s, 9s7s, 9s5s, 9s4s, 9s3s, 8s7s, 8s5s, 8s4s, 8s3s, 7s5s, 7s4s, 7s3s, 5s4s, 5s3s, 4s3s, AQo, KQo, Q7o+, Q5o-Q3o }

Without any real reads, or tingly "knowing" feelings that we're beat, instacall all day.

Just pointing out some calculable reasoning behind why this is a must call.