200NL AA dry flop

GoRedBirds · #1 03-24-2007, 02:05 PM

Harrah's STL. 1/2 10 handed.

UTG calls. I'm in MP1 with AA and raise to $10. 2 callers and one of the blinds come along. I have ~$150 behind.

Pot: $43
Flop:
K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Blind checks, I bet $35. One player behind me who has me covered calls. Looks like he knows what he's doing, nothing notable since we sat down though.

Turn:
7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Completing the rainbow.

What's my move??? Flop bet OK?

Thanks in advance.

bottomset · #2 03-24-2007, 02:08 PM

shove some of the time

c/shove some of the time

retep · #3 03-24-2007, 02:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
shove some of the time

c/shove some of the time

[/ QUOTE ]

Agree, either way your money is going in. Its up to you on how you get that done.

GoRedBirds · #4 03-24-2007, 02:17 PM

Thanks, appreciate it. Flop bet good?

bottomset · #5 03-24-2007, 02:28 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks, appreciate it. Flop bet good?

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah

to eloborate a little more, I think I'm more inclined to check than shove, because you can get a better feel for the strength of his hand, and also he may not call a turn shove with KJ/KQ but if the turn checks through and the river bricks he may be more inclined to call the river, it also lets him bluff if he decided to float lightly, unfortunately some of his floating hands are 7x which now crush you

he isn't too likely to have KK(I'd estimate 1effective combo which coincides with him flatcalling pre 1/3rd of the time) there is 1combo of 77, and 3 of 33

on the flip side there are 12combos of KQ, 12 of KJ, and thanks to the 7pairing he has the same equity with those, as you have when he has a set so your equity skyrockets with each Kx hand that is in his range, and similarily plummets the more 7x hands he can have

GoRedBirds · #6 03-24-2007, 02:37 PM

I agree a check is best here. Assuming he bets, can you ever find a fold here? If so, under what circumstances (without any further live reads)?

bottomset · #7 03-24-2007, 02:56 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I agree a check is best here. Assuming he bets, can you ever find a fold here? If so, under what circumstances (without any further live reads)?

[/ QUOTE ]

if I was confident he would check behind KQ/KJ type hands and wasn't likely to float with air then I would be inclined to fold to his bet

its kind of a tricky balance since the flop is conductive to you cbetting with most if not all of your hands even though the pot is 4handed, since it hits so few hands, knowing that he is unlikely to raise with monsters on the flop, also he may feel he can call the flop and take it away on the turn since his call will look pretty scary

I'm not sure you clarified his position, is it

blind, utg, you, him or
blind, you, him, random or
blind, you, random, him

I think he's most likely to have air if its blind, you, random, him and least likely to have air if its blind, utg you him

GoRedBirds · #8 03-24-2007, 03:31 PM

It was blind, me, villain, button. I went all in and he turned over 22. Just wanted to see if it was dumb or not. Thanks for the responses.

gurgeh · #9 03-24-2007, 05:51 PM

What hands do you expect to call a bet that large on that flop?

GoRedBirds · #10 03-24-2007, 06:05 PM

[ QUOTE ]
What hands do you expect to call a bet that large on that flop?

[/ QUOTE ]
I dunno... What's an appropriately sized bet there? That was where I figured I messed up the hand. And given that he called, do you ch/f? B/f? I'm only left with a pot-sized bet.

OTOH, if I lead out ~ $20, It's an $80 pot and I have $130 behind. How much does that change things?