love or hate stars lo8 30/60

shaundeeb · #1 03-11-2007, 07:16 PM

PF limp trying to add more hands to my game table had been passive over an open limp so less likely to get isod.
PokerStars 30/60 Omaha/8 (6 handed)Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
Hero calls, MP calls, 2 folds, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (4 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks, MP bets, SB calls, BB folds, Hero raises, MP calls, SB 3-bets, Hero calls, MP calls.

Turn: (6.50 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets, Hero calls, MP raises, SB calls, Hero 3-bets, MP caps, SB calls, Hero calls.

River: (18.50 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, MP bets, SB calls, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 21.50 BB

Shabamabam · #2 03-11-2007, 10:32 PM

Hate it. Don't 3-bet turn.

KneeCo · #3 03-11-2007, 10:32 PM

I probably just lead the flop, call a raise 3 way.

I also don't like the turn 3 bet much at all unless you have some weird read, your redraw sucks.

Edit: to answer the question in the tittle, I hate.

howzit · #4 03-11-2007, 10:47 PM

MP has aces.

SB either has middle set or is quartering with you. altho i don't hate the turn 3 bet, it's negatively convex in a vacuum.

Shabamabam · #5 03-11-2007, 11:06 PM

I think 235 is a very real possibility for SB the way he played it.

howzit · #6 03-11-2007, 11:37 PM

yeah, 235 is in play. maybe w/hearts or back door spades.

but on baye's theorem, shaundeeb's deuce-three lock-low is gonna win half more often not. (buzz, is this stmt correct?)

Buzz · #7 03-12-2007, 03:30 AM

[ QUOTE ]
but on baye's theorem, shaundeeb's deuce-three lock-low is gonna win half more often not. (buzz, is this stmt correct?)

[/ QUOTE ]Howzit - I don’t think of this situation as an application of Baye’s theorem, as I understand Baye’s theorem.

I just looked up Baye’s theorem in two books, (1) an old probability and statistics book I bought for a quarter, and (2) in a 2+2 book, Getting the Best of it by David Sklansky that cost me about thirty bucks. I like David’s explanation better. (120 times better?....Yes.) Maybe I simply don’t see how to apply it here, but it doesn’t seem to me as though Baye’s theorem supports Shaun winning half more often not.

Looks more to me as though Shaun might have gotten fractionated here (either quartered or sixthed).

SB check/calls a flop bet and then three bets when that is raised. Bizzare! Baffling! Doesn’t make sense unless SB is checking, calling, and raising more or less at random, like looking at the second hand of his watch to see what to do. Maybe I’m missing something.

Does SB have 23XY? I don’t have a clue. However, I don’t know what else he could have to bet this way. MP continues to bet very aggressively. Is MP putting Shaun on 23XY, SB on nonsense, and simply betting the Hell out of a high hand, perhaps only two pairs, or maybe a set? Or is he simply bluffing on the river with a missed draw that he already mis-played? Beats me.

I would not get involved in responding to this thread, except that you asked me a question. At any rate, I don’t see how Baye’s theorem applies here, but maybe I’m missing something.

Lastly, as long as I’m responding, my two cents worth is that I would neither voluntarily play Shaun’s trash hand in this crap-shoot game, nor in a game where the betting made sense.

Buzz

EffenDolts · #8 03-12-2007, 10:17 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
but on baye's theorem, shaundeeb's deuce-three lock-low is gonna win half more often not. (buzz, is this stmt correct?)

[/ QUOTE ]Howzit - I don&#8217;t think of this situation as an application of Baye&#8217;s theorem, as I understand Baye&#8217;s theorem.

I just looked up Baye&#8217;s theorem in two books, ...

[/ QUOTE ]

Buzz, you should get "The Mathematics of Poker" by Bill Chen and Jerrod Ankenmann. It just came out in November. It has very clear exposition on applying Bayesian probability to poker situations. I got Jerrod to autograph my copy at ATLARGE. Bill didn't get to ATLARGE until after I left.

Bayesian probability is harder to apply to O8, since it is harder to set up the conditional probabilities for any 2-card combination. The side cards dramatically affect the way a 23xx hand will be played, so it is a fairly complex task to set up the right Bayesian calculations. Bayes' theory definitely applies here, but you would have to enumerate all the possible side cards to do it right.

I have been writing some software to do these calculations automatically, but it is a much tougher problem than I though going in.

Effen

bbartlog · #9 03-12-2007, 10:21 AM

Doesn’t make sense unless SB is checking, calling, and raising more or less at random

Seems to me like SB is just trying to maximize the money going into the pot - looks like he didn't raise MP's flop bet because he didn't want to scare people off, but once it was clear both MP and Hero were along for the ride he decided to pull some more money in. Which does suggest something like 235 or 23xx suited in hearts for SB.
I would usually expect MP to show down the high and SB to also have 23xx in this hand.

As for the play, I fold preflop (I don't like 223x). And 3-betting turn does seem wrong, though not hugely -EV (SB after all could also have 5667 with hearts or something).

Buzz · #10 03-12-2007, 11:42 PM

[ QUOTE ]
you should get "The Mathematics of Poker" by Bill Chen and Jerrod Ankenmann. It just came out in November. It has very clear exposition on applying Bayesian probability to poker situations. I got Jerrod to autograph my copy at ATLARGE. Bill didn't get to ATLARGE until after I left.

[/ QUOTE ]Hi Effen - I have that book but I couldn’t find it last night. I did find it today and looked up the section on Bayes theorem.

[ QUOTE ]
Bayes' theory definitely applies here, but you would have to enumerate all the possible side cards to do it right.

[/ QUOTE ]If you say so, Effen. I was trying to apply it to SB without much success. For starters, I don’t know what range of hands SB plays. And then I don’t know what range of hands SB would play in this fashion.

As I think more about it, if there is good logic to SB’s reasoning, there seems a good chance either (1) SB has 23XY, perhaps as 235Y, or (2) SB wants BB and/or Hero to think SB has 23XY.

But I know people who will throw in an extra inappropriate raise just to be included as one of those who have raised, or just to be a puzzle, or just to feel more a part of the game. It can be more of an ego thing than a strategically logical play. Possibly that is what is going on here.

There’s a guy who plays irregularly in our regular weekly private game who occasionally makes a tiny raise just because it’s fun for him to play that way. In that respect he’s like a child who does something inappropriate simply for attention, simply to get a reaction.

Buzz