bad streaks

[jvans]

thought about this question after watching a friend go through a seeming unbelievable streak of bad beats and outdraws. we play a very similar style and i've been a winning player for over a year and he's lost a lot of money in the last four months. My question is for an average winning player playing small stakes (25NL and $5 $10 tourney's) how much of any given year will be a "bad run"? obviously there are a lot of variables involved but if i could get some winning players with several years of experience to answer how often and for how long they hit bad runs it would be helpful

[ughaulkghalugh]

LOL

[SomthingOrOther]

Wish they'd answer,I would like to know also?

[AbreuTime]

If you are losing over 10K hands, it may just be variance. At 25NL, I think it's very unlikely for a winning player to be losing over more than 50k hands. You will need more than 100k to have an estimate for your winrate, but your game will probably evolve and change over that time to make the estimate immediately outdated (if you are playing part-time, which is what I suspect is your situation).

By the way, think of it in terms of hands, not time period.

[SomthingOrOther]

howa bout a 75+ bb swing over 2,500 hands at .25.50 LIMIT???

[CPHoya]

Good players never have bad runs.

For example, during law schools finals I've applied the following theory:

1. Stress out so you play bad
2. Move up
3. ???
4. Profit



As you can see, moving up should prevent any player from ever losing money.

I hope all of you will apply this plan optimally.

Regards.

[ughaulkghalugh]

[ QUOTE ]
howa bout a 75+ bb swing over 2,500 hands at .25.50 LIMIT???

[/ QUOTE ]

take off your mask
gimmick

[mdkrahn]

sandwiches and milk usually do the trick.