($27t) K8s Short Stack Bubble Call?

[Mike MacIntosh]

SB is a solid regular. What range do you put him on? Do you fold or call?

PokerStars Tournament, Big Blind is t150 (4 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

CO (t4020)
Button (t4625)
SB (t3650)
Hero (t1205)

Preflop: Hero is in BB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
<font color="gray">CO folds</font>, <font color="gray">Button folds</font>, <font color="red">SB raises to t1800</font>, Hero ???

[Shillx]

Put him on about the top 75% and call quickly

[JSH06]

[ QUOTE ]
Put him on about the top 75% and call quickly

[/ QUOTE ]

I love when someone already has a good answer &amp; I don't have to do anything except quote it. Thank you.

[PTB]

This looks like a pretty clear call, since he is a regular he is pushing very wide making this quite +EV to call

[fluorescenthippo]

whats his name? most regs, and by that i mean 95% of them at the 27s and 60s push far too much here and similar spots.

[Luisgallo]

Agree.
same situation I pushed 69o yesterday and got call by K8.
Nice call!

[Crosby]

If he's solid you have to call. Some of the other posts seemed to imply we need to know he pushes too much. Too much is obv subjective, but if he pushes 60% and K8s is near the bottom of our range, we both make a marginal profit, fwiw.

[Shillx]

[ QUOTE ]
If he's solid you have to call. Some of the other posts seemed to imply we need to know he pushes too much. Too much is obv subjective, but if he pushes 60% and K8s is near the bottom of our range, we both make a marginal profit, fwiw.

[/ QUOTE ]

You have to call against an unknown. The purpose of the NE is so you know what to push/call against unknown players. If you know what they are doing then the NE is going to be -EV. It is obviously +EV to call against someone pushing 75% of the time but it is even more +EV to call against someone pushing just 30% of the time. The WORST CASE scenario is when the SB is playing optimally.

30% push/34% call

70% of the time your equity is 12.3%
10.2% it is 10.0% (48.8% to win)
19.8% it is 10.4%

Your Equity = 11.7%

75% push/34% call

25% of the time it is 12.3%
25.5% it is 11.9% (58.4% to win)
49.5% it is 10.4%

Your Equity = 11.3%

I'm much happier when I make a "bad" call because I'm actually winning in the long run. In this case you gain 0.4% when he pushes a less then optimal amount. You should obviously adjust if you know that he is pushing less then the optimal amount but don't worry about making a bad call in a vacuum because that isn't what this game is about.

[Crosby]

Very insightful stuff, I agree 100%. I was just hoping to illustrate to OP that you can easily Nash it to see that it's a call, as that is the worst case scenario in which your opponent's play shows a profit (ignoring the idea of your opponent turning down profit) and it is still good.

Your explanation is better than mine, though, and is a healthy reminder.

[RexWoo]

Shillx : that was really interesting. Thanks.