NL10 6m: QQ overpair on flop but K hits on the turn

[Caelallaiach]

Button is 15/9/1.4 over about 100 hands.
Hero is 21/15/5.6 over about 100 hands.

What is Hero's play on the turn?

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.05/$0.10
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $4.30
UTG+1: $16.50
CO: $12.20
Button: $9.85
Hero: $10.45
BB: $9.85

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is SB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Button raises to $0.35</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $1.2</font>, BB folds, Button calls.

Flop: 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($2.5, 3 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $1.75</font>, Button calls.

Turn: K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($6, 3 players)
Hero ?

[DawnToDusk]

You sure are aggro. I think since this is micro you ought to bet here. I say that because if you were playing higher limits you might be able to get creative with a check and it might throw people off because you are so aggro. You might get a worse hand to bet into you or call you on the river but thats debateable and another topic.

A bet of $4 here looks good to me. Hes pretty TAGgy and I dont know what he would be floating with unless it was a set or a PP. If you get raised here you are probably beat and are looking at a set or AK.

Anyone think I am on crack? I've been out of the game lately.

[Caelallaiach]

Yeah my high aggression factor is due to sample size, I usually have an aggro factor of about 3.5, is that about right?

Anyway, do you really think I can fold after betting $4, I would then have committed $6.95 of my $10.45 stack, and if he shoves the pot would be $16.90 and it would be $2.90 which works out as 5.8 to 1 pot odds.

I am familiar with Baluga Theorem but does it apply to a re-raised pot like this?

Can I just save my last $2.90?

[munkey]

You've put in 1/3 of effective stacks so still able to get away. He's semi-passive so I think a turn check may be good -he may check behind then we can bet river -if bet into sizeably I will probably fold here - he may be stealing but legit handss we beat are few.

If we bet 4 and get pushed we have to call and puke or puke and call then.

Check and see what happens...

[Caelallaiach]

Does the K actually change anything though, versus this Villain who seems pretty TAG. I mean if the turn was the 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] would you suggest checking the turn then?

I just don't see how Villain can have AK, would he call my flop bet? I think his most likely holdings are JJ or TT and my fear is that a turn check could let him take the pot away from me with a sizeable turn bet. Having said that he is not that aggro, hmm, maybe I see where you coming from.

[GoadToad]

I'm betting half pot and folding to a raise, shutting down on river if called. My bet is because checking to the K is too transparent and even somewhat passive players may be inclined to take a shot at me, and I can't call down with 2nd pair vs. someone who is 15/9/1.4

Against a looser or more aggressive player, I would play differently. If I know he's very likely to take a shot at a checked pot I might c/c c/c to pick that off. I might c/r against some players. But against someone like this I like the modest blocking bet. Small enough that I might get some value from a 9 and half pot is big enough to keep such a player from stealing without a hand. If he raises with air in contradiction to his stats, cudos to him.

[BoerfSt]

Bet 4 on turn and fold to a raise is what i would do.

[munkey]

I don't dislike betting the turn, but if we bet will JJ- call? where as if we check they might bet for us. I don't like betting 4$ ~40% of our stack then folding to a raise on the turn.


[ QUOTE ]

Does the K actually change anything though, versus this Villain who seems pretty TAG. I mean if the turn was the 2 would you suggest checking the turn then?


[/ QUOTE ]

I will also check this turn quite a bit with many holdings including AK and QQ some of the time -may be I play differently in 3bet pots than most here.

[Freelancer]

I check the turn here pretty much regardless of the turn card and value betting the river against tags. Unless offcourse villain knows me than I start mixing other lines in. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]