High variance situation: Gutter & FD vs. LAG

[JCurtin]

This hand just came up and I'm having difficulty deciding whether I like my line or not.

Background: Villan is pretty loose aggressive, but nothing crazy. Stats: 33/19/3+
My Stats: 21/16/3.5 (not too laggy, but I was card dead for a bit)
Raise the button, standard. Cont. bet on a decent flop, standard.
His raise here seemed to be a hand definer. I figured him for something like A9, AJ, maybe even getting cute with an 89. From his play, I'm pretty sure he 3 bets me with AK, AQ, 10s. 7s are another possible hand, but I think he'd 3 bet with them at least 50% of the time.

I decide that this is a great spot to represent AK or even A10 and make a big raise. This is where it gets interesting. Now, I have to give him credit for a hand. Throughout the hand, I had him on just a big A. A flush draw is possible, but it seems to me like he's overplaying a big A. 77 does however concern me at this point.

What is your opinion of my line on this hand and what is my move now? Can I give myself 13 clean outs? Am I justified in calling given his range, or would this be complete chip spewage?!

I'll post results and thoughts after some responses. Thanks guys!


Full Tilt Poker
$0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Ring Game
5 Players
LegoPoker Hand Converter

<font color="black">Stack Sizes</font>
CO: $143.90
Hero (BTN): $154.15
SB: $103.15
BB: $99
UTG: $92.50

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($1.5, 5 players)
UTG folds, CO folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $3.50</font>, SB calls $3, BB folds

<font color="black">Flop:</font> 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($8, 2 players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $5</font>, <font color="red">SB raises to $13</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $38</font>, <font color="red">SB raises all in to $100.15</font>

[thac]

Well since you want some fold equity to go along with this hand I think your 3-bet should be more, maybe to like 50-55 so it's easier for you to call a shove.

Oh - and you only have 12 clean outs, you can't count your gutshot card twice.

[jordiepop]

I might just call the raise on the flop here. but in all honesty im not sure if our diamonds are live here. he could have a hand like Ax diamonds. this seems like a tough one imo.

[loosbastard]

Yeah I make my 3-bet bigger or just shove. I kind of like a shove here because it doesn't let him try a 4-bet AI w/ a bigger FD.

[jordiepop]

so Ax diamonds is not a worry at all. I have an identical hand play out the other day and the guy had top pair with four diamonds, against my oesfd.

[allen]

Against 77 this is a call, as well as A7/AT which I would put in his range running at 33 vpip... You could easily have 13 clean outs (minus the redraw) or you could be completely dominated.

It looks like a marginal situation, especially if villain could be shoving with any two broadway diamonds

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 33.737% 33.56% 00.18% 9634 52.00 { 8d6d }
Hand 1: 66.263% 66.08% 00.18% 18972 52.00 { 77, AdJd, ATs, Ad9d, Ad7d, Ad5d, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ad2d, KdQd, KdJd, QdJd, ATo, A7o, 9s8h }

At 33% equity you are still priced in to call.

[JCurtin]

bump

[craigmarq]

I agree Axd should definately be a concern.

[pdoran10]

call, i estimate we are something like 40% to win (i pull numbers out of my butt) to win against his range and we are getting the right price to call from the pot.

[JCurtin]

Rest of hand played out as follows.

Full Tilt Poker
$0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Ring Game
5 Players
LegoPoker Hand Converter

<font color="black">Stack Sizes</font>
CO: $143.90
Hero (BTN): $154.15
SB: $103.15
BB: $99
UTG: $92.50

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($1.5, 5 players)
UTG folds, CO folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $3.50</font>, SB calls $3, BB folds

<font color="black">Flop:</font> 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($8, 2 players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $5</font>, <font color="red">SB raises to $13</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $38</font>, <font color="red">SB raises all in to $100.15</font>, Hero calls $62.15

<font color="black">Turn:</font> 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] [J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]] ($208.3, 2 players)
No action

<font color="black">River:</font> 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] [Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]] ($208.3, 2 players)
No action
Seat 3: AL18AL (small blind) showed [Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]] and lost with two pair, Aces and Queens


In hindsight, I think that either making my 3 bet something like $52 to $55 or just 3 bet shoving would have been better because it takes away my opponent's fold equity as well as usually forces a bigger flush draw (unless Adxd) out of the pot.