Tough river spot with JJ on paired board

Fiksdal · #1 03-02-2007, 01:12 PM

$2 Freeze on FTP with 177 entrants

I was sweating this guy I am coaching, and this hand came up.

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t30/t60
9 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: t2950
UTG+1: t4245
MP1: t1885
MP2 (Hero): t2305
MP3: t1665
CO: t1530
Button: t3010
SB: t3835
BB: t1155

Pre-flop: MP2 has J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls t60 (pot was t90), MP1 folds, MP2 raises to t180, 3 folds, SB calls t150 (pot was t330), BB calls t120 (pot was t480), UTG+1 calls t120 (pot was t600).

Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (t720, 4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP2 bets t360, SB calls t360 (pot was t1080), 2 folds.

Turn: 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (t1440, 2 players)
SB checks, MP2 checks.

River: 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (t1440, 2 players)
SB bets t1440

I think he should have bet a little more on the flop.

The turn and river line is more interesting, thoughts? Should he call?

helloimcdog · #2 03-02-2007, 01:30 PM

I don't particulary mind the check behind on the flop, but river is either a call or a push. With the check on the turn and the PSB by the SB, this really looks like a standard bluff situation for him, I'm probably pushing for value here expecting to see something like 88.

BlueEcho · #3 03-02-2007, 01:34 PM

In a $2 tourney trip Q's don't always get the value bet they should, most often I think they are wrongly slow played. It seems easy for me to see SB checking the turn in the hopes MP2 is betting again.

I think turn is standard. Trying to get to showdown.

In trying to figure what else SB has I think you're behind here more then you're ahead. I can maybe see TT,99,88 playing it this way as well, but is questionable.

Does this work?

Board: 5h Qc Qs
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 29.632% 29.59% 00.04% 19628 27.00 { JdJs }
Hand 1: 70.368% 70.33% 00.04% 46648 27.00 { QQ+, TT-88, AQs, KQs, Q9s+, AQo, KQo, Q9o+ }

Fiksdal · #4 03-02-2007, 01:40 PM

Villain has either Qx here, or he is bluffing.

An average $2 donk will definitley slowplay a queen here sometimes, but since we checked behind on the turn, I'm pretty sure he could be bluffing too. And with a queen, maybe villain would have bet a little less?

BlueEcho · #5 03-02-2007, 02:18 PM

Yeah betting less would make sense but this is a $2 so anything is possible. Or at least thats the approach I took here.