The Well: NajdorfDefense

[Performify]

A stranger is being shown around a village that he has just become part of. He is shown a well and his guide says "On any day except Wednesday, you can shout any question down that well, and you'll be told the answer" .

The stranger shouts down several questions, and all are answered. The stranger is impressed, and after thinking a minute he shouts down: "Why not on Wednesday?" and the voice from in the well shouts back "Because on Wednesday, it’s your day in the well".


NajdorfDefense has volunteered to take a turn in The Well. This is his thread, and your opportunity to shout any question down The Well for NajdorfDefense to answer...


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Previous turns in The Well: [*] Performify - 02/02/07[*] B00T - 02/07/07[*] Thremp - 02/14/07[*] NajdorfDefense - 02/21/07[/list]

If you are interested in volunteering to take a turn in the well, send Performify a PM.

[Homer]

You seem to be big into UPenn rivalry games. Did you go to Penn/Wharton? If not, where did you go to school and in what subject did you major?

What sort of work do you do now?

[WaterOlay]

Since you didnt respond in my thread, I will ask you (and I really dont know if you do this for your income, so if this applies please respond):
How did you get started sportsbetting?

How did you get that big of a bankroll to be able to start?

Do you enjoy making this your life or is it really a grind for you

[NajdorfDefense]

I went to a Big East school and then an ACC school for graduate work, which ones are not important but are easily findable in the archives. I am born and raised in Philly originally and have been going to the Palestra -- the Best Place in the Country to Watch College Hoops -- my whole life.
Since both my parents went to Big 5 schools, I saw a lot of games at the Palestra, and the Big 5 has spawned some amazing coaches, college and pro over the years: Chuck Daly, Jack Ramsay, Massimino, Cheney, Dunphy, Tom Gola, Paul Westhead, Bob Weinhauer [took Penn to Final 4, lost to Magic] Harry Litwack, Ken Loeffler [won NCAA and NIT] Jack Kraft, and guys like Jim Phelan, Herb Magee are also locals.

I majored in Finance and, um, Finance again, and now am a professional money-manager using lots of OPM, perhaps the most on the forum.

I think my best skill-set or attribute as a bettor/'capper is a deep understanding of things like correct money mgmt, risk of ruin, betting big advantages bigger, the 'long-run' and variance. I tend to use Kelly betting for a lot of things, I recommend it heavily for new, serious bettors as you can never go Busto using Kelly.

Either through skill, or luck, or both, I have managed to hit virtually all of my biggest bets here on 2p2 over the past 4+ years, esp on CBB and CFB, bowl season's been very good to me the past few years, but I generally win the majority of my profits year-in year-out on CBB.

[ QUOTE ]
Penn games, etc

[/ QUOTE ]
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...age=0&amp;vc=1
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...age=0&amp;vc=1
Yeah, I follow them closely.

I am happy to give generic details about my background, but not anything real specific. A few 2p2ers have met me in person in NYC, AC, PHL over the years.

One area that working on WallSt has helped me recognize and become more profitable is on +EV longshots offered at various books. Things like LSU at 100-1 and 125-1 last year, Cuse at 28-1 year the won the title, sweeps in the World Series, Douglas v Tyson, etc. Most people don't want to bet even on a 40-1 shot that has a 30-1 shot of winning.
More for us who like collecting the EV-dollars in all cases. However, since I have an excellent job, betting will never be a full-time gig for me until I retire.

Another thing I've gotten good at over the years is predicting some line moves in CBB. Being able to do this [at least some small% of the time] is the key in becoming a serious bettor, as mentioned on another thread. Esp when March Madness comes around:
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...age=0&amp;vc=1

Shopping around for the best line is likely the #1 most important 'skill' after money mgmt. Going live to Vegas in March like I do every year, you see *tons* of 1/2 and full-point differentials. I spend like 8 hours Wed and Thu just line-shopping on the Tourney and propping. {Yay, IP!}

[NajdorfDefense]

[ QUOTE ]
How did you get started sportsbetting?

How did you get that big of a bankroll to be able to start?


[/ QUOTE ]

I am a HUGE sports fan, as many of us are. I always followed CBB and NFL/CFB very closely. NFL is very tough to beat but even as a teenager I figured out that you could offer locals worse odds [or take them from bookies] on da Iggles and vastly increase your profits.

One thing that Gladwell talks about in 'Blink' is that intuition, that gut-feel, that blink moment when something seems not right to you. But, that takes years and years of experience and study to acquire. I've had a few Blink moments and they're almost always very profitable. This is different from saying, "Yeah, Knicks are gonna score 125 tonite, lawlz, zomg!111!" of course.
If you watch 100s of CBB games, wager on a lot of them, each and every year for decades, you will eventually get a sense for certain things like line moves and overvalued teams.
The other obvious key is to watch smaller conferences - Ivies, A10, CAA, MEAC, SWAC, NEAC, whatever, you are always going to find better value there than ACC/p10/b10/SEC.

I didn't have a huge bankroll to start, I built it at the beginning by hitting 2 very nice longshots: Buster Douglas and Reds sweep of A's, both around 50-1 odds. Now, quantitatively, you could never have forecast Buster beating Iron Mike, no one ever had, after all, as a pro. But qualitatively:
Mike was going thru a bitter divorce, he was fighting in Japan, he wasn't eating right - he was at McD's every day, he looked awful in sparring, his partner knocked him down 2x[!], and Buster was fighting for his recently deceased Mom. All that was public, and still people gave him only a 2% shot of winning. I figured it was at least 4%, so...
Ditto for the Reds, they had better hitters than the A's with Larkin and Davis, 3 almost untouchable closers in the Nasty Boys, and a real staff ace in Rijo and another stud in Browning, in a Series that looked to be very close regardless. Reds won 2 games by 1 and 1 by 2. Again, I just figured the odds were off somewhat and the leverage was huge.
Same for LSU when their odds dropped to 125-1 last year. With a solid senior guard, and two studs in Thomas/Davis, they were built for a Final Four run. I kept buying them at T/S as they dropped and unloaded a bunch in the Semis for huge profits, I think they were 27% or so, iirc. You only need to be right a small % of the time for these bets to payoff big, and the futures market where you are playing the public's forecasts is easier than the daily spread against Vegas.

So that jumpstarted this as a serious hobby for me. I watch and go to as many CBB games as I can, although not as much as I used to due to work obligations. I'm attending a game tonite, so I will be off 2p2 for a while later.

[NajdorfDefense]

Another concept I've used profitably every year is simply buying a 'basket' of teams to win the Big Dance. Here's something I wrote early last year:
'LSU, Kansas, and Wash are dirt cheap in the futures pools.
Also Gtown and OhioStU.'

Obviously LSU made the Final Four and Wash shoulda beaten UConn and GTown was a missed shot away from defeating Fla.
By the Semis, that basket was up 450% or so in value.
In prior years, I had Syracuse at 28-1 in my basket [with 2 other teams], and faves Uconn at 4-1 and UNC at 3-1 to win the whole thing when they won it all, mixed with 20 and 30-1 longshots.
Obviously those faves have to go pretty far to realize value, but I really felt like both of them should have been favorites to win after seeing virtually all of their games, and both were favored all 6 games, so my early prediction of 'market value' was proved correct. Of course, that doesn't always happen as the gambling gods have been reminding me recently.

[foolishdrunk]

Do you ever bet on who will win the big dance, or future bets such as that?

[NajdorfDefense]

Homer had a longshots post earlier where we talked about this. I was lucky to get Butler at like 200-1 or so earlier in the year, that's one with so much value if they win a few games you can still hedge [should you desire] to take out $$$ and keep a good bit riding.

[bills217]

[ QUOTE ]
I majored in Finance and, um, Finance again, and now am a professional money-manager using lots of OPM, perhaps the most on the forum.

[/ QUOTE ]

What is OPM?

My degree will be in chemical engineering, but I really have more interest in business/finance. I'm gonna get my MBA next year, after that no plans really. Have no desire to do technical chemical engineering work. Any advice on getting into your field?

[paperchamp]

I don't understand why people don't want to get specific about personal stuff. It's not like anyone is asking you to post your address or your SSN. Where you went to school is pretty irrelevant.

Are you a fugitive?