Huge drawing hand on turn - flat call or raise?

[dren]

Can someone tell me the correct play here please?

Hero sitting in seat 4 with $95.66
P1 sitting in seat 5 with $49.50
P2 sitting in seat 7 with $22.95
P3 sitting in seat 8 with $35.11
Villain sitting in seat 9 with $83.98

Hero posted small blind ($0.25)
P1 posted big blind ($0.50)
Dealing Hole Cards A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 10 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
P2 called for $0.50
P3 called for $0.50
Villain called for $0.50
3 folds
Dealing the Flop 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Hero checked
P1 checked
P2 checked
P3 checked
Villain bet for $2.50
Hero called for $2.50
P1 folded
P2 folded
P3 folded
Dealing the turn K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Hero checked
Villain bet for $7.50

Villain had just lost $100 on a $2/$4 moments before this hand played out, and is quite a loose player and often makes steal attempts.
I had been playing very tight, but he may not have been paying attention to this.
I called the $2.50 on the flop because I though he might be playing a simlar A to mine, and the pair 9 might be good + any number of cards can improve my hand to a big drawing hand also.

Once I have nut lo draw + nut flush draw, should I re-raise or just call?

Thanks.

[bbartlog]

If villain currently has a high better than your 9, you definitely don't have proper equity to be wanting to put more money in the pot. So raising only makes sense if you think villain is bluffing and/or might fold to a raise. Still, chance of that doesn't have to be too high in order to make a repot correct, so I think it's OK if villain is the sort to semibluff a draw, or if he would go crazy with a hand like A357 here.
Anyway, it's probably close. Raise increases your variance but might get you a wild image (if you show down) that you could take advantage of later.
One other thing - the repot would look significantly more attractive if your low draw had counterfeit protection.

[wackjob]

w/o a read that you can get a fold, which is probably unlikely, raising here is not a good play.

[Buzz]

Dren - Hero checked the flop and Villain bet the pot. Then Hero checked the turn and Villain bet the pot again. Is Villain trying to steal or does he have a bona fide good fit with this flop and turn? Villain could easily (as simulated roughly one third of the time) have a hand-held higher pair than this flop, or could make a straight, two pairs, or trips with this flop. Or Villain could easily have a hand with a king or even a pair of kings, so that the turn might have been a good card for Villain.

Given the information provided, it’s pretty difficult to put Villain on cards here.

Forget about the money that is already in the pot, including what it will cost you to call the bet. Considering what is already in the pot, you easily have favorable odds to call.

For the purpose of raising, consider only the fresh money that will go into the pot this betting round and the next.

Let’s try to make this as simple as possible. Let’s assume Villain does have something for his bets (else he probably won’t call your raise anyway). Let’s momentarily put aside the danger of getting quartered if you make low. Let’s assume with only one opponent, you will win low while your opponent will win high for any of the twelve cards that make you the nut low, but that do not seem to do much for high for you. In other words, for these twelve cards it will be a push. You’ll get back what you put into the pot this round and next - and your opponent will also get back what he puts into the pot this round and next.

The aces and deuces are enigmatic. Low will be enabled, but your opponent may not make it, and you may scoop with two pair - or you could lose to a set or two higher pair or something else. Let’s assume these cards are also a push.

Lets assume that you will scoop with any diamond or the case nine. Thus we will assume nine scoop cards for you. (That may not be true for the nine or the seven or nine of diamonds, which also pair the board).

Let’s temporarily put aside the possibility of bluffing your opponent out of the pot and assume the remaining 17 cards will be losers for you.

Thus, as simplified, there are 9 cards that scoop for you, 17 cards that lose for you, and the rest are pushes.

In other words, there are approximately two river losing cards for every one river scooping card. Thus you need to somehow win twice as much when you win as when you lose.

The only way you can accomplish this feat is if your opponent will pay you off when the river card is a scooper for you.

[ QUOTE ]
Can someone tell me the correct play here please?

[/ QUOTE ]If you think you can collect enough from your opponent on the fourth betting round when the river promotes your hand into a scooper, then by all means raise. If not, just call.

In pot limit you have the potential to make an enormous profit when you make your nut draw on the river. But your opponent has to pay you off when you do make your draw.

Let’s say Villain starts with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], and thus has the fourth nut low draw plus two pairs, kings over fives after the turn. Will he pay off a big bet on the river if the river is 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]? If he probably will, then you should raise. If he probably won’t, then you should just call and wait to see what the river brings.

There are no stone cold nuts at this point. For high <ul type="square">• could be quads.
• could be a heart flush,
• could be a diamond flush,
• could be a king high straight,
• could be a jack high straight,
• could be a nine high straight.[/list]For low<ul type="square">• could be 2-A,
• could be 3-A,
• could be 3-2,
• could be no low possible.[/list]The river card will determine the nuts, but the winner won’t necessarily have the nuts.

Since there are no stone cold nuts yet, Villain probably won’t re-raise, but will probably call unless on a pure bluff. But will Villain pay off or not on the river for a card such as 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]? That is the question.

Since I don’t play much pot limit, maybe I’m missing something.

Buzz

[I dunno]

Were you watching the hand he just lost? What happened? It's also important to know what his requirements for starting hands are. Like is he only slightly loose preflop and then very LAG postflop, or the other way around? Also, it seems like everyone that has replied so far doesnt see the straight on the board. Some LAGs like middle cards. If this is part of his range then I absolutely hate a check raise.

If you think he's tilting, or going to fire again on a lot of rivers, I prefer check call and then check-raise when your flush comes in, and check call when your flush also pairs the board, or if you make trip nines. If a ten or an ace falls then you have to make a decision.

If you think there is a good chance he folds, then I like checkraising, but I would want to be pretty sure of that before I did it.

I do like to push my strong draws hard when I'm OOP, and I think it's correct to do so when you have a lot of fold equity, and extraction value could be a problem.

I don't like it here because you are going to have a lot of money left over if he calls, with only seven nut outs, and he could always re-pot it back in your face, which is the same reason why I wouldn't lead that turn without more info on him. It also doesn't sound like extraction value is a problem. He might even stack off with a decent flush on the river, or any flush if low is also possible.

You have a very equitable hand against his range, but it's going to be very difficult to tell exactly what are good cards for you, so I prefer to let him hang himself.