DialIdol

NoChance · #1 02-21-2007, 03:38 PM

Is it just me or do the Dial Idol results look incomplete.?

I was watching the results come in and rankings change until about midnight (AZ time). There was about an hour there where the results looked like they paused. Then for about 30 minutes there was a single small update where Nick Pedro fell to the bottom of the list. Then there were no more updates.

If you go to the geograph section, it also looks like there is incomplete data from the west coast. Most of the western states have very little or no data. I am wondering if maybe there is a glitch and we don't really have the complete data on those two pages.

On the other hand, if you go to the DialIdol hard Analysis page, you get results much more in line with what you would expect and it shows the final update at 2:51 AM. Here are those results from top to bottom:

DialIdol Hard Anlysis

1 Phil Stacey
2 Chris Richardson
3 Blake Lewis
4 Jared Cotter (I too thought he was good and deserving of this spot)
5 Brandon Rogers
6 Chris Sligh
7 Sanjaya Malakar
8 AJ Tabaldo
9 Sundance Head
10 Rudy Cardenas
11 Nick Pedro
12 Paul Kim

Does anyone else think maybe this list is more accurate and the other pages have incomplete data, maybe a bug?

Jiggymike · #2 02-21-2007, 03:39 PM

This looks right. Sorry Paul, I was rooting for you...

GrannyMae · #3 02-21-2007, 04:03 PM

OOPS, sorry NoChance. I forgot you were doing the dial idol results as well this year.

thanks sir. these numbers are make or break to a winning season.

GrannyMae · #4 02-21-2007, 04:09 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Does anyone else think maybe this list is more accurate and the other pages have incomplete data, maybe a bug?

[/ QUOTE ]

no bug. sample size of participants too small. only a few contestants are statistically behind enough to make any valuable inferences.

week 4 numbers will be first true look.

LotsOfOuts69 · #5 02-21-2007, 04:13 PM

Yes, I am very confused. I have never used this site before, but I go to dialidol and then click on predictions, and it shows very different results than the hard analysis you linked to.

I'm not sure whats going on.

Edit to add: Granny, are you saying that the hard analysis is too small a sample, or the predictions themselves, or both?

NoChance · #6 02-21-2007, 04:24 PM

[ QUOTE ]
no bug. sample size of participants too small. only a few contestants are statistically behind enough to make any valuable inferences.

[/ QUOTE ]

I realize the sample size is too small and because there are so many contestants they will largely be statistically grouped together. My point is not that these results are inaccurate but rather that I think they are incomplete. Look at the Geograph page. Almost half of the states have very little data. It is almost like the database got full at some point and quit updating. However, the Hard Graph kept updating until 3 AM. It is possible that data is contained in a separate database (or table).

This looks incomplete

soflat · #7 02-21-2007, 04:27 PM

The Graphs are more in-line with what you would expect from the performances. They don't show Sundance and Sanjaya gaining ground and eventually passing everyone (which is what happened on the predictions page).

4Tay · #8 02-21-2007, 04:41 PM

From this thread:

http://www.dialidol.com/asp/forums/t...sp?TOPIC_ID=16

[ QUOTE ]
 The DialIdol score is an algorithm that "measures the busy signal". Every three minutes the busy percentage is calculated for each Idol then weighted according to the time zones submitting data. Each intervals score is added up then averaged out to produce the DialIdol score. Using this method versus the original method of just calculating the actual busy percentage eliminates problems related to call volume and population influence.


[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
 could you please explain your raw numbers to me? It seems that the raw numbers predict a totally different outcome than your busy dialing numbers. WHy is this and which one is more accurate? 

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
 Raw numbers are the number of calls/busy signals/votes DI registered. Since DI lets people vote for anyone they want - different Idols will get more or less busy signals/votes. This is not a far method to compare Idols...

Instead DI takes the busy percent - the percent of a single Idols calls that were busy and rates each other against it.

Soooo... If Taylor got 1000 calls and 600 were busy - his busy percent is 60. Also, if Kellie got 100 calls and 60 were busy her busy percent is 60% as well. DI thinks it's more fair to judge by busy percent but gives you the raw numbers for fun.


[/ QUOTE ]

So in conclusion, I wouldn't think too much of the raw data.

LotsOfOuts69 · #9 02-21-2007, 04:48 PM

[ QUOTE ]
From this thread:

http://www.dialidol.com/asp/forums/t...sp?TOPIC_ID=16

[ QUOTE ]
 The DialIdol score is an algorithm that "measures the busy signal". Every three minutes the busy percentage is calculated for each Idol then weighted according to the time zones submitting data. Each intervals score is added up then averaged out to produce the DialIdol score. Using this method versus the original method of just calculating the actual busy percentage eliminates problems related to call volume and population influence.


[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
 could you please explain your raw numbers to me? It seems that the raw numbers predict a totally different outcome than your busy dialing numbers. WHy is this and which one is more accurate? 

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
 Raw numbers are the number of calls/busy signals/votes DI registered. Since DI lets people vote for anyone they want - different Idols will get more or less busy signals/votes. This is not a far method to compare Idols...

Instead DI takes the busy percent - the percent of a single Idols calls that were busy and rates each other against it.

Soooo... If Taylor got 1000 calls and 600 were busy - his busy percent is 60. Also, if Kellie got 100 calls and 60 were busy her busy percent is 60% as well. DI thinks it's more fair to judge by busy percent but gives you the raw numbers for fun.


[/ QUOTE ]

So in conclusion, I wouldn't think too much of the raw data.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think my head cold is getting to me cause this made my confusion worse.

LotsOfOuts69 · #10 02-21-2007, 04:51 PM

Which is which? I go to predictions, this tells me the busy signal percentage, I assume these numbers are not weighted per time zone.

But then the OP linked the HARD ANALYSIS. This seems to be the SCORE that DI talks about, is this with the time zone weights? or is this the raw data beng talked about? or is the predictions tab the raw data?

bleh...