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#1
02-16-2007, 10:55 PM
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Easy $, long wait (Over a Year)
On Intrade
Bet: Al Gore to be Democratic Nom. in 2008 You can sell this at 8.4-5.0 return on investment. Why: Gore rules out bid for US White House in 2008 
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#2
02-17-2007, 01:15 AM
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Re: Easy $, long wait (Over a Year)
Are you sure this story is legit? There's virtually no media coverage of it. I did a Google news search and found only one reference to this story today, it's not on any of the major news sites, and it's not in his Wikipedia profile (yeah, not a reliable source, though a firm statement saying he's not running would be mentioned).
-SonnyJay
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#3
02-17-2007, 01:56 AM
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Re: Easy $, long wait (Over a Year)
Actually, you don't need to hold it all that long. Only until the news breaks and then you cover it.
I think that Al Gore will run, which is why you see all of that activity. He is just being coy. Awful picture. I think that Edwards and Obama are good shorts at those prices.
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#4
02-17-2007, 02:05 AM
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Re: Easy $, long wait (Over a Year)
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#5
02-17-2007, 03:10 AM
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Re: Easy $, long wait (Over a Year)
Another downside of this is that you typically need to hold money in reserves if you sell a contract. I don't know how Intrade works, but on WSEX you need to hold cash that you could have to pay off on the short contract in a reserve. For example, if you sell a contract for $10 (that pays $100 if it hits), you have to keep $90 additional dollars frozen in your account in case you have to pay. Thus, if you sold an Al Gore contract at $7, you would have to freeze another $93 until the DNC.
What you could, theoretically, do if the situation presents itself is short the contract before everyone else knows about it, the prices will fall, and then you can buy an offsetting contract to pocket the difference. Example: Sell the Gore contract now for $7. Wait for everyone to find out and drive the price down. Then, buy one for $1. You gain $6 and you don't have to hold up $93 in your account. Again, I wouldn't actually do it since I don't trust the report, but you could if you knew it was true.
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#6
02-17-2007, 07:39 AM
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Re: Easy $, long wait (Over a Year)
Why is this news? He wasn't seriously intending to run for president at this point, anyone who said he was going to was speculating. And the most important thing to remember is that saying he is not going to run means absolutely nothing, he could easily change his mind later if the situation is favorable.
So once again, why is this news?
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#7
02-17-2007, 12:59 PM
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Re: Easy $, long wait (Over a Year)
If Al Gore came out and said definitively "Mark it down, I'm not running. No committees, no research, I'm simply not running," it would likely mean that he won't run. And even if there was still the possibility that he would run, his futures prices would probably drop significantly, allowing you to cover your short contract.
However, this doesn't seem to be the case here. -SonnyJay
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#8
02-18-2007, 02:52 AM
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Re: Easy $, long wait (Over a Year)
IMO, fading Clinton or Obama is a good bet at this time if you have nothing better to do with monies or just enjoy the interest. A white male is too huge of a favorite for a woman or black. (Trying to keep it short and unpolitical... There's considerations with Southern States... Random other issues... But mostly just getting support from the party)
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#9
02-18-2007, 06:09 AM
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Re: Easy $, long wait (Over a Year)
[ QUOTE ]
IMO, fading Clinton or Obama is a good bet at this time if you have nothing better to do with monies or just enjoy the interest. A white male is too huge of a favorite for a woman or black. (Trying to keep it short and unpolitical... There's considerations with Southern States... Random other issues... But mostly just getting support from the party) [/ QUOTE ] I completely agree. No way Hillary could win the general election, and it would be an extreme longshot for Obama to win.
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#10
02-18-2007, 04:40 PM
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Re: Easy $, long wait (Over a Year)
MrFeel,
I agree totally on general. I'm a little less certain on nominations, but the dynamics of a general election strong favor fading these. Namely the fact that the South (where most blacks live) is also home of all the "racists" and whether or not they are diehard Klan members or just feel uncomfortable when they see a bunch guys standing near them in the mall in FUBU, the swing vote will find it easy to stay at home or check the box for protestant white guy.
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