800nl flat call with nuts on turn and river?

[bigt2k4]

converter came out as a bunch of 0's so here is the PT HH
my image is that of a fish and a slight CS, losing a lot on table. pfr is a decent pf player, but a semi aggressive CS(if that is possible,calls way too much with marginal holdings) 25.5/9.7/2.39. Other villain is 20.1/15.5/2.9.

- Bigt2k4 sitting in seat 1 with $808.00
- KingKamal sitting in seat 2 with $1816.00 [Dealer]
- GaIactus sitting in seat 3 with $780.00
- LiqdDynamite sitting in seat 4 with $666.00
- digbick30 sitting in seat 5 with $700.00
- bhockey sitting in seat 6 with $2446.70

GaIactus posted the small blind - $4.00
LiqdDynamite posted the big blind - $8.00
** Dealing card to Bigt2k4: Queen of Hearts, King of Spades
digbick30 called - $8.00
bhockey folded
Bigt2k4 called - $8.00 ( normally I raise, but I had raised 4x in a row prior to this pf, and was scared UTG was planning on limp raising, I hadn't seen him open limp albeit I hadn't played with him a lot.
KingKamal raised - $25.00
GaIactus called - $25.00
LiqdDynamite folded
digbick30 called - $25.00
Bigt2k4 called - $25.00

** Dealing the flop: 10 of Clubs, 9 of Hearts, Ace of Hearts
GaIactus checked
digbick30 checked
Bigt2k4 checked
KingKamal bet - $24.00
GaIactus called - $24.00(quick call indicative of draw)
digbick30 folded
Bigt2k4 called - $24.00

** Dealing the turn: Jack of Diamonds
GaIactus bet - $136.00(very sure he made draw, prolly has KQ as well, slight chance of AJ or 78
Bigt2k4 called - $136.00 (I call because I believe he has KQ and I want overcall from cs pfr who may have turned 2 pair)
KingKamal called - $136.00

** Dealing the river: 4 of Spades
GaIactus bet - $312.00(almost positive he has KQ)
I feel like a flat call is in order as I want an overcall from villain and I raise will prolly scare him and split pot with other opponent.
Thoughts? nuts= must raise? Should I have raised turn?

[Eagles]

Is this serious?

[bigt2k4]

[ QUOTE ]
Is this serious?

[/ QUOTE ]
villain(turn bettor) would never bet his flush draw in this manner. Other guy, I am 75% sure has a naked A on flop and nothing else, may have hit 2 pair on turn (I'm sure he's not on a flush draw

edit: Ya,I'm serious.

[dfbuzzbeater]

are you looking for an overcall? is that why you would flat call?

[bboy_]

do we go for overcalls in nl? raise the turn you're hand is actually quite hidden hitting the ISD. and even so, you said the leader most likely has a draw (hearts) so we should raise and hopefully the pfr has a set/2pair that we wont want to be pushed off.

river is omg come on... he bet about half the pot. i'd say anything from a minraise to a push are good here. from my calc you only have ~600 left?

[bigt2k4]

[ QUOTE ]
do we go for overcalls in nl? raise the turn you're hand is actually quite hidden hitting the ISD. and even so, you said the leader most likely has a draw (hearts) so we should raise and hopefully the pfr has a set/2pair that we wont want to be pushed off.

river is omg come on... he bet about half the pot. i'd say anything from a minraise to a push are good here. from my calc you only have ~600 left?

[/ QUOTE ]
my read is that the turn leader hit his draw, I am 100% sure of this, he may have a redraw to a flush-only if he has 78 since I got the Q of hearts), but he hit his draw be it 2 pair or more likely the str8(he doesn't lead with a flush draw for this amount on the turn). Turn and river lead bettor has bout $280 behind, I got about the same( on top of the call). Button has us both covered and I am very sure will fold if I raise the turn or the river. So I am going for the overcall and want to split the pfr's money with the other guy.

edit: assuming I am not splitting the pot, I get more money albeit only about $40 by getting the overcall than by pushing and getting the pfr to fold and the other guy to call of his stack.

[capone0]

You have to figure out a call % by the Button (75%). You also have to figure out what are the odds of splitting with the other guy are (I'm guessing it's probally 50/50). Also if you raise the river with the guy who hit his draw call the rest of his stack (I'm guessing this is 90%). If EV of raising the river is greater than the EV of the call, you make the move. Who on earth knows exactly what the odds of the call are. Honestly, most times I raise here.

[bigt2k4]

[ QUOTE ]
You have to figure out a call % by the Button (75%). You also have to figure out what are the odds of splitting with the other guy are (I'm guessing it's probally 50/50). Also if you raise the river with the guy who hit his draw call the rest of his stack (I'm guessing this is 90%). If EV of raising the river is greater than the EV of the call, you make the move. Who on earth knows exactly what the odds of the call are. Honestly, most times I raise here.

[/ QUOTE ]
If I raise I would say button calls 5% of the time, flat call button calls 60%, other guy calls 90%, odds of splitting pot 70%.

[Hindsight2020]

Main villain has 78/AJ WAYYYYYYYYYY more often than KQ.

[bigt2k4]

alright, results: not that anyone cares
Turn bettor had 78, button flat called with ?? (2pair?)(almost timed out b4 calling)
Got an extra $40 than if I had raised, button folded and stacked off the other guy. I supposed raising the river would have been better since bettor would stack off 100% of the time and button calls less to make it profitable.